Research On The Impact Of “The Belt And Road” Initiative On China's Export Trade With The Countries Along The Belt And Road

“the Belt and Road” initiative is an important measure for China to open wider to the outside world.It is based on the principles of mutual consultation,joint construction and sharing,and the five links are the focus.It is committed to promoting the establishment of a fair and equitable new international order,building openness and tolerance New types of regional cooperation that coexist with each other,a clear-cut opposition to trade protectionism,and advocacy for and maintenance of free trade are important platforms for promoting exchanges and cooperation between China and the countries along the route.It has effectively promoted the continuous deepening of economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the route and the continuous improvement of the dialogue mechanism.To promote the development of trade between China and the countries along the route.Over the past six years since “the Belt and Road”initiative was proposed,the total trade volume between China and the countries along the route has gradually increased from 25.12% in 2013 to 27.61% in 2018;the total export trade and imports between China and the countries along the route in 2018 The total trade volume reached a record high,which was US$24494.23 billion and US$2134.98 billion respectively.Under the current background of inverse globalization,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of “the Belt and Road” initiative on the export trade between China and the countries along the route.In the first part,we first introduce the research background and significance of this paper,comb the literature research of the existing scholars on the trade between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” Initiative,establish the research angle and research method of this paper,and summarize the research of this paper Innovations and deficiencies.Secondly,it summarizes the relevant regional economic theories and international trade theories involved in“the Belt and Road” regional cooperation organization.Finally,explain the impact of the implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative on the trade growth between China and the countries along the four aspects of infrastructure connectivity,government promotion,China's investment in countries along the route,and market demand growth along the countries.The second part analyzes the overall and sub regional trade scale development trends,trade balances and export commodity structure of China and the countries along “the Belt and Road”from 1994 to 2018.The trade between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” has developed rapidly.Except for individual years,total trade,import trade,and export trade haveshown a rising trend,but the export share growth rate is faster than the import share growth rate.China and the countries along the route took 2005 as the watershed.Before that,it was mainly a trade deficit,but it has been showing a trade surplus since then.China's exports of capital-intensive industrial manufactured products to countries along the route are greater than labor-intensive industrial manufactured products.Export commodities are mainly concentrated in machinery and transportation equipment,manufactured products mainly classified by raw materials,miscellaneous manufactured products,machinery and transportation Equipment is the first category of China's exports to countries along the route,with a share of around 40% per year.The third part studies the impact of “the Belt and Road” initiative on export trade between China and the countries along “the Belt and Road” using the double difference model of propensity matching.The empirical results show that,while other variables remain unchanged,“the Belt and Road” initiative is significantly It has promoted the growth of China's export trade with countries along the route.The counter factual test was used to verify the robustness of the model,and the “the Belt and Road” initiative was advanced one year and two years respectively.It was found that there was no significant change in the difference in trade between China and the countries along the route and non-regional countries,confirming the estimated results of the model It is unbiased.This paper further expands the empirical evidence based on regional and common borders.The study found that after the implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative,China's exports to the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” have significantly increased.However,the impact on the export of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” is greater than that of the ” Silk Road Economic Belt";the empirical results considering the common border show that the implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative has significantly promoted our country's neighbouring and non-neighboring countries.The growth of export trade,but the effect on the export trade of neighboring countries is greater than that of non-neighboring countries.Finally,summarize the main research conclusions,and based on the research results and previous analysis,put forward the following policy recommendations: First,encourage more countries to participate and accelerate the construction of the “the Belt and Road” initiative;Second,speed up technological innovation and optimize the structure of commodity trade;Third It is to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce and break through geographical distance restrictions.Fourth,it is to promote the construction of free trade zones between Chinaand the countries along the “the Belt and Road” and increase the level of economic and trade cooperation.