Estimation Of Shandong Provincial Government Expenditure Multiplier Based On TVP-VAR Model

In the context of the current COVID-19 epidemic that has affected the economy to a certain extent,my country has implemented a proactive fiscal policy.General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the meeting to coordinate the promotion of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the deployment of economic and social development work,and that a proactive fiscal policy must be more proactive.Whether it is for China’s current or past economy,proactive fiscal policies play a very important role,and government expenditure is the main tool for the implementation of proactive fiscal policies,and its multiplier—government expenditure multiplier is an evaluation of the fiscal policy effect Important indicators.Based on previous studies,this paper uses the SVAR model and TVP-VAR model to estimate the government expenditure multiplier of Shandong Province,and changes the model variables to calculate the government expenditure multiplier again and compare it;calculate the government expenditure multiplier in China and compare it with Shandong Compare and analyze provincial government expenditure multipliers.This article establishes a three-variable SVAR model and a TVP-VAR model to study the impact of Shandong government expenditure on macroeconomic variables,estimate the long-term and short-term government expenditure multipliers of Shandong Province,and compare the results of the two models to explore The shortcomings of the SVAR model and the advantages of the TVP-VAR model.Using the TVP-VAR model again to estimate the national long-term and short-term government expenditure multipliers,and comparing the government expenditure multipliers in Shandong Province with the national government expenditure multipliers,the following conclusions are obtained:Shandong Province’s short-term government expenditure multipliers are more than the national short-term government expenditure multipliers.Stability means that the fiscal policy effect of Shandong Province is more stable than the national average.From the perspective of the long-term government expenditure multiplier,the national long-term government expenditure multiplier has stabilized between 2.5 and 3.5.The long-term government expenditure multiplier of Shandong Province has stabilized between 4 and 5 in most years.However,the long-term government expenditure multiplier of Shandong Province The expenditure multiplier is more volatile than nationally.This shows that from a long-term perspective,the stimulating effect of Shandong’s government expenditure on Shandong’s output is more obvious than the stimulating effect of national government expenditure on national output,and the effect of fiscal policy is more significant.All in all,compared with the national average,Shandong’s government expenditure multiplier has the characteristics of rapid rise,stability,and large value in the short term,but in the long run it has the characteristics of large value and relatively large fluctuation.The variables of the Shandong Provincial Government Expenditure Multiplier Estimation Model are changed,that is,the influence path of government expenditure is changed,and compared with the original path,the following conclusion is obtained:The multiplication path is "government expenditure→resident consumption→total output".The fluctuation range of the number is smaller and more stable.