A Study On Optimal Ratio And Influence Factors Of Government Expenditure On Disaster Prevention And Mitigation

Due to the global warming,the frequency and loss of natural disasters are increasing,which has caused a serious threat to the survival and development of human society.It has always been an important issue about disaster management for government to carry out disaster prevention and reduction through financial expenditure,however,the proportion of expenditure on disaster prevention and reduction has always been difficult.In this paper,on the base of the dynamic change of disaster probability,a residential-producer-government decision-making model is constructed to study the optimal proportion of government expenditure on disaster prevention and mitigation and the expected economic growth rate under different circumstances.Then,the flood disaster in Hunan province will be taken as an empirical research.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The proportion of optimal expenditure on disaster prevention and reduction increases with the probability of disaster occurrence and the degree of population aversion to disaster risk;(2)The proportion of optimal expenditure on disaster prevention and reduction increases with the substitution elasticity coefficient of government productive expenditure and private capital,when the government productive expenditure and private capital are complementary,a reasonable share of the government's productive expenditure can reduce the optimal expenditure ratio of disaster prevention and reduction,It will also slow down the expected economic growth;(3)In the event of a serious disaster,Increasing the proportion of expenditure on disaster prevention and reduction is not the best strategy;.(4)In the short term,the resistance to the expected economic growth increases with disaster risk will increase,but the resistance can be effectively alleviated by the optimal proportion of disaster prevention and reduction expenditure and the "creative destruction" by Schumpeter.The theoretical model constructed in this paper,explains that the influence of various factors on the optimal proportion of disaster prevention,and reduction expenditure is a useful supplement to the relevant research.The results of empirical analysis verify the rationality of the model,and provide reference for the practice of disaster prevention and reduction.