Disruptions Supply Chain Network Design Under Grey Demand

Frequent natural disasters and increasingly complex supply chain network structures make companies vulnerable to shocks in their operations.Coupled with the prevalence of modern lean management ideas,companies have little room for manoeuvre in dealing with sudden risks,resulting in disruption of the supply chain network.Therefore,designing a supply chain network that can effectively resist risks has become an urgent task for every enterprise.In recent years,with the deepening of research on supply chain networks,supply chain networks in uncertain environments have been favored by researchers because of their more realistic reality.Compared with random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty,there are few literatures combined with grey theory.In the actual supply chain,gray information,such as gray demand,is objective.Therefore,considering the disruption of the supply chain network design under the gray demand,supplementing and perfecting the supply chain network for the processing of uncertain information has important practical and theoretical significance.The main research work of this paper is as follows:(1)Construction and solution of an disrupted supply chain network model with the goal of minimizing total cost.For the disrupted supply chain network model with grey demand,the transfer strategy is used to mitigate the risk,and the model is transformed into the corresponding deterministic model.The experimental results show that:(1)When the probability of disruption is small,the use of the transshipment strategy can better meet the customer's needs and play a defensive role against the risk;but when the probability of interruption is large,the transshipment strategy is not enough to make up for the loss,the customer may be out of stock.(2)As the proportion of capacity loss increases and the total cost increases,companies will choose to open more reliable distribution centers.(2)Construction and solution of the interrupted supply chain network model aiming at maximizing customer satisfaction.According to the difference of consumers' perception of different out-of-stocks,the prospect theory is used to describe customer satisfaction,the network model of disrupted supply chain based on prospect theory is constructed,and the single-objective tabu algorithm is designed to solve.The experimental results show that:(1)different sensitivity is adopted for the sensitivity of customers to the distribution volume.The risk factor can more accurately locate the customer's satisfaction value;(2)using negative values to indicate the customer's dissatisfaction can more intuitively display the customer's negative feelings,and will alert the company.(3)Consider a multi-objective supply chain network model with the goal of minimizing total cost and maximizing customer satisfaction,in order to find a balance between the two.For the optimal Pareto solution set obtained by the multi-objective tabu algorithm,the evaluation order based on the grey relational analysis method is used for decision makers.