A Study On The Influence Of Climatic Factors On The Seasonality Of Destination Tourism

The tourism industry has significant seasonal characteristics in China.Many factors affect tourism seasonality,and related studies have confirmed climatic factors as influencing factors.China's climate has changed significantly in recent years,and the warming trend has been prominent.Climate change is bound to affect the seasonality of the tourism industry in China.Based on the relevant literature,this article takes Beijing and Shanghai,the main destinations of China's inbound tourism,as the case cities.It uses the case cities' monthly inbound tourists and the top ten source countries in the international tourism market as the research data,using X-13-ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment method extracts the seasonal change factor sequence of the research data.It analyzes the seasonal characteristics of inbound tourism.Subsequently,the autoregressive distributed lag model(ARDL)was used to test climate factors' influence on inbound tourism seasonality empirically.The research results show that:(1)Beijing's inbound tourism presents significant "two peaks and two valleys" seasonal distribution characteristics;the top ten source countries in Beijing's international tourism market show significant "two peaks and two valleys","single peaks and single valleys" or "Single peak and double valley" seasonal distribution characteristics.(2)Shanghai's inbound tourism presents significant seasonal distribution characteristics of "two peaks and two valleys";Shanghai's top ten source countries in the international tourism market show significant "two peaks and two valleys","two peaks and one valley",and "single peaks and no valleys".The seasonal distribution characteristics of "valley" or "three peaks and double valleys".(3)Monthly average temperature,monthly average precipitation,monthly average wind speed,monthly average relative humidity,and monthly average sunshine duration are important factors affecting the seasonality of inbound tourism in Beijing and its top ten source countries.(4)Monthly average temperature,monthly average precipitation,monthly average wind speed,monthly average relative humidity,and monthly average sunshine duration are important factors that affect the seasonality of inbound tourism in Shanghai and its nine major source countries.Korean tourists come to Shanghai for tourism.Seasonal is not affected by the above climate variables.The research conclusions of this paper are not only of great significance for enriching the seasonal theory of destinations but also provide a theoretical basis for predicting the potential changes in the seasonality of China's inbound tourism in the future but also help tourist destinations to formulate targeted measures to deal with the impact of seasonal tourism.