Research On Seasonal Characteristics And Impacts Of Climatic Factors On The Seasonality Of Tourism In Guangdong Province

Tourism,which will affect industrial structure,economic development,ecological environment,cultural heritage,plays an important role in the tertiary industry.Seasonal tourism research is one of the methods to promote the healthy development of tourism.This thesis analyzes the seasonal characteristics of the number of tourists in Guangdong Province,and the spatial and temporal effect of climate on tourism seasonality.First of all,the tourism seasonality of 21 cities in Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2017 was extracted by the TBATS model in order to compare seasonal cycles and analyze seasonal trends.Then,a K-means clustering approach is used to identify clusters of cities based on the similarities of seasonal components between cities.The Gini concentration index,the Theil index and the Relative Seasonality Index are used to measure seasonal amplitude,and their characteristics can be obtained through comparison.Finally,a GWR model and a GTWR model are established to explore the spatial and temporal impact mechanism of climate on tourism seasonality.The empirical results mainly show the following aspects:First,over 70% of the cities show dual-calendar effects.Therefore,when analyzing the seasonality in tourism in China,the lunar calendar effect should be considered in order to accurately grasp the development trend of tourism.Second,there are six patterns of tourism seasonality in Guangdong Province,and these patterns show spatial correlation.Third,by comparing the indices,it can be found that Gini concentration index and Theil index respectively focus on the fluctuations of medium and high observations,and Relative Seasonality Index is closely related to the distribution of peaks.Finally,empirical studies show that the GTWR model,which can take summer effects into account,performs better than other models.The model can not only avoid false regression due to holidays,but also effectively identify the spatial and temporal correlation and heterogeneity of climate impacts.In most cities,tourism is similarly affected by temperature and weather,but the impact of wind is small.The seasonality of Guangdong's tourism is highly correlated with the local latitude and longitude and the distance from the sea.The degree of climate impact is similar to the division of Guangdong.The climate has a great impact on the tourism in the eastern and western parts of Guangdong province,but a small impact on the northern part of Guangdong province and the Pearl River Delta.At the end,from a statistical perspective,this thesis provides theoretical support and policy references for reducing tourism seasonality in Guangdong Province and exploring potential markets during the off-season.