Tourism Climate Assessment:Model Optimization And Chinese Case

The development of the tourism must be based on a comfortable and safe climate.The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide comprehensive and effective tourism climate reference information for tourists when selecting destinations.At the same time,it can provide a scientific basis for relevant government departments and tourism enterprises to formulate policies and plans at macro level,which is of great significance for decentralizing seasonal pressure,enhancing the image of tourism destinations,and realizing the sustainable development of tourism.At present,most of the climate comfort evaluations for tourism activities in China use the general climate comfort evaluation model,or directly apply the foreign tourism climate comfort evaluation model.However,the general climate comfort evaluation model focuses on thermal comfort evaluation,while tourism activities have their own special characteristics.Most of tourism activities are carried out outdoors.In addition to the evaluation of thermal comfort,it is also necessary to consider the meteorological factors of physics and aesthetics.The general climate comfort evaluation model can not objectively reflect the climate comfort during the tourism process.While the foreign tourism climate comfort evaluation model is mostly based on the questionnaire survey of western tourists or residents,if directly applied,it may not be able to truly reflect the comfort level of the tourism climate that meets the daily perception of Chinese tourists.Based on the analysis of the existing tourism climate comfort evaluation models,this study selects the more perfect holiday climate index(HCI),try to test the weight of each meteorological element in HCI by the entropy method,and use the "seasonal anchor method" and relevant national standards optimize the threshold division criteria for each meteorological element(include thermal comfort,precipitation,wind and cloud).The overall evaluation rating of HCI was reduced from 8 to 4,which were“comfortable”,“sub-comfortable”,“uncomfortable” and “dangerous”.Finally,the optimized Holiday Climate Index(MHCI)was obtained.The daily meteorological data of 775 meteorological stations nationwide from1981 to 2010 were selected.The climatic comfort of China's mainland was measured by MHCI,and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tourism climate comfort period were analyzed by ArcGIS.According to the length of the tourism climate comfort period of tourist cities,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.At the same time,the distribution characteristics of the tourism climate comfort zone are measured,and the tourist climate comfort probability of typical holiday is calculated.According to different geographical divisions,the representative cities are selected to analyze the distribution of tourism climate comfort probability during the year.The results show that:(1)China has an average of 127 days of comfortable climate during the year,in which the summer tourism climate has the longest comfort period of up to 44 days,and the winter tourism climate has the shortest comfort period of only 7 days,the tourism climate comfort period in spring and autumn is about 37 days;(2)In the past 30 years,the comfort period of the tourism climate increases by an average of 10 days per decade,and most regions have shown an increasing trend.Only in Hainan Province,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional space and Hebei-Shandong-Henan regional space,the tourist climate comfort period has slightly decreased.The positive impact of climate change on the tourism climate comfort of China's mainland is greater than the negative impact.(3)China's 39 tourist cities have an average annual tourism climate comfort period of more than three months,with Kunming's tourism climate having the longest comfort period of 219 days.Except for Kunming and Xiamen,the remaining eight of the top ten are northern cities,which are somewhat different from people's daily perceptions.Northern cities should strengthen their attention and use of their own tourism climate resources.(4)The peak of the average annual tourism climate comfort area in China's mainlandappears in mid-to-late May and late September,and the low peak appears in late January,laying the natural foundation for seasonal tourism in China.During May 1st and the National Day,the tourism climate comfort probability is above 50% in most parts of the country,especially in Xinjiang Province.Government departments and tourism enterprises should pay attention to Xinjiang's good tourism climate resources and develop and utilize them.With the development of human physiology and computer science,tourism climate comfort evaluation can try to further refine the evaluation results through the combination optimization with the mechanism model,and try to determine the weight of meteorological elements reasonably through different quantitative methods.Consider the simulation prediction of future tourism climate comfort in the context of climate change,and combine the evaluation results with the tourism flow analysis,in order to make the evaluation more comprehensive and accurate,and provide a scientific basis for government departments and tourism enterprises to formulate policies and plans.