| Aimed at quantifying the impact of climate change on tourism demand and providing constructive information for future tourism planning, this thesis presents a comprehensive study that consists of three steps. First, a Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) is developed in order to measure tourism related climate resources. This index utilizes climate information from hourly observations rather than simply daily averages, and thus has the ability to incorporate all the climate elements crucial to tourism, and the flexibility to apply to specific tourism activities that require particular climate conditions. Second, the newly-developed index is applied to quantify the impact of global warming on tourism resources as they pertain to the seasonal patterns of two tourism activities, summer sight-seeing and winter skiing. Third, the relationship between climate and tourism demand (national park visitation) are investigated with an innovative approach that takes into account the seasonality of both tourism demand and climate.;In this study, the newly-developed measurement and methodologies are applied to destinations with different climate characteristics (Alaska and Florida) and tourist activities (skiing and sightseeing) that require specific climate conditions in order to identify how and to what extent climate change has affected the quality and seasonal patterns of tourism-related climate resources. The relationship between changed tourism climate conditions and tourism demand in recent decades was also examined. Results suggest that climate warming could have either positive or negative impact. The sign and magnitude of the impact depends on the climate characteristics of the destination and the required climate condition of the tourism activity. Specifically, for sightseeing, this study showed that the quality of tourism climate resources has significantly decreased in Florida and significantly improved in Alaska in the six most recent decades. While the skiing season has been ending significantly earlier in Alaska, the sightseeing season there has been starting earlier since the 1940's. Most importantly, the improved climate conditions for sightseeing are significantly correlated with the increased visitation in Alaska's Denali National Park in early summer (May, June, July).;The contributions of this study are both theoretical and practical. The main theoretical contribution is that this study extends the existing tourism/climate literature by improving climate measurement and the methodologies for quantifying the relationship between tourism and climate. The practical contribution of this study comes from the fact that region-specific knowledge about the impact of climate warming on tourism visitation and seasonal patterns could assist tourism managers to develop future adaptation plans for revenue maximization. |
