Research On The Spatial Effect Of Human Captial On Industrial Structure Upgrading In China

The key to achieving high-quality economic development in China is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure.The 14 th Five-Year Plan proposes to speed up the development of the modern industrial system.In order to explore new growth points of economic development and upgrade industrial structure,China’s economic growth mode needs to be gradually changed from relying on investment and production factors to relying on innovation.As the carrier and source power of technological progress,human capital is not only an important input factor,but also can improve total factor productivity through knowledge spillover and accumulation of technological innovation.It is an important driving force for the upgrading of industrial structure in China.On the basis of combing relevant research results and analyzing literature,existing studies mainly analyze the impact of human capital on industrial structure upgrading by using econometric models from the perspectives of human capital accumulation and heterogeneous human capital,but seldom discuss it from the perspective of space.This paper defines the connotation of human capital and industrial structure upgrading,and expounds the mechanism and path of human capital’s influence on the industrial structure upgrading of the province and neighboring provinces under the framework of spatial effect.On the basis of studying the current situation and spatiotemporal evolution trend of human capital and industrial structure at the national and provincial levels,this paper analyzes the global and local spatial autocorrelation of industrial structure upgrading.Finally,the spatial effect of human capital on the upgrading of industrial structure in China is empirically analyzed by using spatial Durbin model,and the influence is further decomposed into direct effect and indirect effect by partial differential method of spatial regression model.Based on J-F lifetime income method to measure human capital stock,and according to the level of education to measure the internal structure of human capital,found that human capital in our country presents the trend of rising year by year,however,the overall level of education is still low,employment proportion of primary human capital is too high,but the scarce senior human capital,human capital and internal structure in the regional distribution imbalance.Through the measurement of the industrial structure upgrading indicators in China,the rationalization level of the industrial structure in the eastern region is obviously higher than that in the central and western regions.However,in terms of the industrial structure upgrading,the level of service-oriented industrial structure in the whole country is relatively low,and the industrial structure upgrading level still needs to be improved.In the empirical part,using the data of 30 provinces in China except Xizang from2004 to 2018,the spatial econometric model is further constructed and the research finds that the human capital stock has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure upgrading in both local and neighboring regions.Primary human capital not only restrains the upgrading of industrial structure in the region,but also has a negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in neighboring regions.Intermediate region industrial structure upgrading of human capital has obvious negative influence,for the neighborhood high-level industrial structure has certain positive spillover effect.Senior human capital has greatly promoted the upgrading of industrial structure in this region,but the effect of neighborhood brought strong competition,hinder the surrounding area industrial structure upgrade.