Research On The Applicability Of Exclusive Mediation Effect In Mechanism Analysis

Sociology takes the understanding and explaining society as the core task of research,so sociologists often have a special interest in demonstrating the connections between things and explaining the causes behind the phenomenon.Although in recent decades,the discussion on causal inference and mechanism analysis has become increasingly heated and a considerable number of research results have emerged,we still need to be vigilant.At present,although the research on social mechanism has made a lot of achievements,there are also a wide range of inherent problems such as "over-determined" and "changeable importance" that need to be solved.Therefore,this paper takes "how to use quantitative research methods to overcome the inherent problems in the study of social mechanisms" as the main research question,and excludes other possible explanations by testing the explanatory ability and scope of competitive mechanisms under the same pair of variables.In this way,we choose the mechanism with stronger explanatory power and more reliable scope of application.This work not only helps to clarify the interpretation category and establishment conditions of the new mechanism,but also helps to reflect on the robustness and reliability of the existing mechanism.In order to achieve this purpose,this paper chooses "How migration behavior affects the childbearing desire of people of childbearing age" as a case study to compare and test the explanations of "Marital stability theory","Urban integration theory" and "Child care accessibility theory" respectively.According to the analysis results of basic regression model,mediation effect model and various robustness tests,migration behavior has an inhibitory effect on the second child’s reproductive desire,but has no significant effect on the reproductive gender preference;migration behavior will affect the second child’s reproductive desire by affecting the gender concept of the childbearing age group,the more open the gender concept is,the less likely it is to have more than two children.The above conclusions remain stable in the post-90 s born group and the married and childbearing group.Thus it can be seen that the intrinsic motivation based on concept and attitude is better to explain why the young floating population is unwilling to have a second child.