| As one of the largest policy financial systems in the world,the fund security of housing accumulation fund has attracted great attention of scholars at home and abroad.Since the establishment of the housing accumulation fund system in 1998,after nearly 30 years of development,various indicators have increased in a large scale,including the payment unit of the accumulation fund,the number of people who have paid the accumulation fund,the loan amount of the accumulation fund,the payment amount of the accumulation fund,the withdrawal rate,etc.With the rapid development of the real estate market and new urbanization,provident fund has become an important way for many people to repay their housing loans.However,due to the rise of house prices and the frequent flow of population,the management center of provident fund has been unable to make ends meet,and the subsequent liquidity pressure has increased year by year.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper selects cities with relatively perfect annual report of national provident fund from 2014 to 2017 as research samples,constructs a random effect model,and further analyzes the impact of population migration and house price fluctuation on the liquidity of provident fund from the perspective of region through comparative study on the whole sample and sub sample.The research shows that: the liquidity pressure of China’s provident fund not only has obvious differences between the East and the west,but also the gap between different cities is increasing.The liquidity pressure of the eastern region is far higher than that of the central and western regions,and the liquidity pressure of the first and second tier cities is far higher than that of the third and fourth tier cities.From the results of the full sample test,the migration of population and the rise of housing price will improve the liquidity of provident fund,and housing price will play a part of intermediary role between the migration of population and the liquidity of provident fund.On the one hand,the expansion of management scale will reduce the liquidity of housing provident fund,on the other hand,it will play a negative role in regulating the migration of population,the fluctuation of housing price and the liquidity of housing provident fund.It is found that: population migration and rising house prices will improve the liquidity of housing provident fund in the East,the West and the first,second,third and fourth tier cities,but the rising house prices will play a part of intermediary role in the East and the first,second and third tier cities,but no intermediary role in the West.On the one hand,the management scale will reduce the liquidity of housing provident fund in the East and the first,second tier cities,but will improve the liquidity of housing provident fund in the middle,the West and the first,third and fourth tier cities Liquidity of provident fund in third and fourth tier cities.On the other hand,the improvement of management scale will alleviate the impact of population migration and house price fluctuation in eastern and first tier and second tier cities on the insufficient liquidity of provident fund,and adjust and improve the plight of population migration,house price fluctuation and excess liquidity of provident fund in central and western regions and third and fourth tier cities.In other variables,wage level,industrial structure transformation and upgrading,public transport,medical level and education level will also promote the liquidity of provident fund,which further aggravates the liquidity pressure of provident fund.In order to effectively deal with the characteristics of insufficient and excess liquidity of the provident fund,this paper starts with the liquidity itself,implements the standardized expansion of the provident fund and the loan system in different places,reduces or suspends the rescue task of the provident fund,appropriately widens the value-added channels of the provident fund,and speeds up the establishment of the national management center of the provident fund.In addition,it is necessary to strictly control the population and increase the number of the floating population In response to the price of commercial housing,the government should regulate the level of housing loan interest rate and limit the sharp rise of commercial loan interest rate.For real estate developers,it is necessary to actively guide them to accept the policy of housing purchase encouraged by provident fund loan,which can be based on the repayment ability of different families to launch a combination of loans,rather than just adopt a combination of loans Commercial loan mode with high interest rate... |
