Research On The Factors Affecting The Birth Rate In Jilin Province

Since China ’s full implementation of the family planning policy,there have been fundamental changes in the birth rate.The family planning policy is an important factor in greatly reducing the birth rate of the population.However,with the reform and opening up,economic development and changes in people’s lifestyles,we cannot ignore society.1.The impact of economic factors on the birth rate of the population.Jilin Province is affected by the national environment,and the population problem is facing the dual pressure of low fertility and increasing aging,which hinders the socio-economic development of Jilin Province.The country started implementing the"two children alone" policy at the end of 2013 and the "comprehensive second child"policy in 2015,but it did not achieve the expected effect of a significant increase in the birth rate of the population.The birth rate of the population in Jilin Province is at a low level nationwide.The problem has become an important issue hindering the social and economic development of Jilin.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the factors influencing the birth rate of Jilin Province to solve the problem of low fertility in Jilin Province.First,based on the introduction of relevant research results at home and abroad,this article examines the changes in the birth rate and economic development of Jilin Province.Second,the relevant data from 1994 to 2018 was used to test the Kuznets curve,that is,whether the relationship between the birth rate of the population and GDP per capita exhibits an "inverted U" characteristic,and according to the current economic environment,the birth rate of the population is selected as the dependent variable.Taking the average sales price of residential commercial housing,household consumption level,and urbanization rate as independent variables,the Almon polynomial distribution lag model was used to analyze the economic factors and lag period affecting the birth rate of Jilin Province.The study found that the correlation between the lag periods of the variables shows that the correlation strength between household consumption level and population birth rate is much weaker than the correlation strength between the average sales price of residential commercial housing,urbanization rate and population birth rate,and household consumption is eliminated when constructing the regression model Level to optimize the explanatory power of the model.The results of the regression analysis show that:First,the impact of residential commodity housing prices on the birth rate of the population is that housing prices and the birth rate of the population have changed in the same direction during the reporting period.The birth rate has a promoting effect,but it is not significant.This is because the housing prices in Jilin Province and the rising rate of housing prices are not as fast as the national average,and are determined by the dual attributes of the housing and investment attributes of housing.Second,the level of urbanization has a significant negative impact on the birth rate of Jilin Province.With economic development,the level of urbanization has increased,the social environment and people’s fertility concepts have changed,resulting in quantitative and qualitative substitution effects in family decision-making,leading to a decline in the birth rate of the population.Based on the above research,this article puts forward policy recommendations for the balanced development of population in Jilin Province,that is,to build a policy system to encourage maternity support,improve the housing security system,strengthen the real estate market control,improve the income distribution system,reduce birth costs,and promote the urbanization process and other measures.