Analysis On The Level Of Birth Rate Change Of Marriage Impact

Our country has entered the low birth rate in the ranks of the country, hascompleted the two transformation of the fertility rate, the total fertility rate is farbelow the replacement level, promote balanced population growth in the long term isthe key problem of population. In reality, factors influencing the fertility rate is verymuch, but whether direct or indirect factors, all need to play a role in marriage. InChina’s fertility rate drop in the process, there are three forces at play, respectively is:force, force, induced force, which respectively correspond to three kinds ofmechanism of falling fertility rates, are compulsory for lead type, since the forceleading and induction force leading; then will the fertility rate decomposition as theproportion of married women of childbearing age women of childbearing age,married fertility rate of two factors, two reflects the marriage and birth control, thebirth rate has different effects. Provides methods affect birth index model forquantitative two.In this paper, using the birth index model to analyze the Jilin Province four, five,six census data, and the measuring results of further investigation, draw theconclusion: during the two years1990-2000census, decomposition--marriedproportion, marital fertility rate in Jilin province two influence factors to reduce thefertility rate is the same, to reduce the fertility rate, the contribution rate isrespectively7.32%and92.68%, the latter is more intensity, is12.7times that of theformer; and during the two2000-2010population census, the proportion of marriedis the role of the reduced fertility, marital fertility is the role of the fertility rates rise,the role of the two opposite direction two, the contribution rate is respectively293.69%and-193.69%, intensity ratio greater than married fertility rate in marriage.In view of this situation, we need to think about possible changes in women ofchildbearing age, proportion of married the future trend? Marital fertility rate may bethe future trend of change? The problem with understanding and understanding as well as related countermeasures adopted, may be a key influence of populationdevelopment in the future. A further consideration is: if we want to continue tostabilize low fertility rate, continue to maintain the existing low fertility rate, ourpolicy focus should be put in what way? Is to continue to maintain a strongadministrative means to control the birth rate in marriage, or change thecomprehensive means of utilization of social economic culture, improve theproportion of control married age at first marriage? Conversely, if we want toincrease the fertility rate, also faces the policy choice!...