The Impact Of Population Mobility On Housing Prices From The Perspective Of Urbanization Process

After nearly 40 years of institutional evolution of reform and opening up,our country’s important pillar industry of the national economy has been transformed into the real estate industry,which has played a vital role in the improvement of the management level of the entire national economy.“Real estate fever” drives our country’s economic development in the short term,but also adds more uncertainty to future social and economic issues.In the “14th Five-Year Plan”,the Party Central Committee once again put forward the proposition of “housing and not speculating”.It can be seen that regulating and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market is still a major task for China in the future.From the current situation,with the rapid progress of China’s urbanization process,the scale of population flow between regions continues to expand,and the urban population flow in the process of urbanization has also become an important factor affecting the development of the housing market.Structural changes are the core driving force for the development of the real estate market,and are also the main factor that may cause serious imbalances in supply and demand structures such as high housing prices and high vacancy rates.Judging from the existing research at home and abroad,the research conclusions on the impact of population mobility on housing prices are controversial.Most scholars believe that population mobility will cause housing prices to rise,and some scholars believe that population mobility will cause housing prices to fall.From this point of view,it is very important to clarify the impact of urban population mobility on housing prices and the specific mechanism of action in the process of urbanization under the background of high housing prices and population structure transformation.Will population movements cause housing prices to continue to rise or fall? Does this impact change structurally at different stages of the urbanization process? What adjustments should my country make in the formulation of population and housing policies in the future?This paper takes the related theoretical analysis of the impact of population mobility on housing prices in the process of urbanization as the background,based on the introduction of the current situation of population mobility and real estate market development in my country,and on the premise of theoretical analysis based on the supply and demand curve of the real estate market and the overall equilibrium model of the housing market,using Based on the panel data of 165 prefecture-level cities in my country from 2004 to 2015,a benchmark regression model was constructed to study the relationship between population mobility and housing prices from the perspective of urbanization;further,using the urbanization rate as a threshold variable,the fixed-effect panel threshold model was used to empirically discuss The nonlinear relationship between population inflow and housing prices in the process of urbanization.The results show that the urbanization process plays a positive moderating role in the relationship between population mobility and housing prices;and the relationship between population mobility and housing prices is affected by the urbanization rate threshold effect.When the urbanization process is in the early stage,population mobility There is a positive correlation with house prices;when urbanization is in the late stage,population mobility and house prices show a negative correlation;and the threshold effect in the eastern,central and western regions has obvious regional heterogeneity.Based on the above analysis results,this paper finally puts forward targeted policy suggestions from four aspects:population mobility policy,floating population rights and interests,urbanization strategy,and housing security system.