| According to the results of relevant big data released by the state,China will enter the stage of moderately aging society in the future,and by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan",according to the forecast,the number of aging population will immediately exceed 300 million.The severe aging problem is becoming a long-term,basic and restrictive factor affecting the sustainable development of China’s economy,and it may also be transformed into a great opportunity to promote economic development.The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee also emphasized the importance and necessity of coping with aging,and for the first time raised the active response to population aging to the height of national strategy.The deepening of aging will lead to the disappearance of the demographic dividend,which will lead to the continuous decline of the overall labor endowment and the increase of the dependency ratio of children and the elderly.These problems will bring a lot of resistance to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the sustainable and high-quality development of the economy;Aging brings not all negative effects.It can also improve the industrial structure by increasing the accumulation of human capital.At the same time,the elderly also promote economic growth by driving the diversification of consumer demand.It can be seen that the aging trend of the population will have many impacts on the country’s economic development.In order to cope with the aging trend,the State Council formally adopted the document "National Medium-and Long-Term Plan for Actively Responding to Population Aging",which emphasized the brand-new prospect of industrial structure adjustment and economic development model under the characteristics of China’s aging.Therefore,this paper studies how the aging of population affects the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure,so as to explore the industrial changes and high-quality economic development path suitable for China’s current background.This paper studies the problem according to the following ideas: firstly,it summarizes the existing literature on population aging and industrial structure,analyzes its basic views and comments;Secondly,this paper selects the panel data of31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2017,and constructs static bidirectional fixed effect and dynamic system GMM regression model from three angles of overall optimization,inter-group optimization and intra-group optimization,and studies the influence of population aging on industrial structure.In addition,this paper also explores how aging affects the industrial structure through different paths by combing the theoretical mechanism and empirical mechanism analysis methods.Finally,according to the research results,the main conclusions of this paper are summarized,and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.Based on the above research,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)From the perspectives of overall optimization,inter-group optimization and intra-group optimization,the deepening of population aging can promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure.(2)From the perspective of spatial dimension,the influence of aging on the industrial structure in the central and western regions is obviously stronger than that in the eastern regions;From the time dimension,the influence of aging on industrial structure after the financial crisis is obviously higher than that before the financial crisis.(3)From the perspective of total supply and total demand,population aging can change the labor force quantity and human capital accumulation rate in the supply dimension,and change the consumption and investment demand preferences in the demand dimension,thus promoting the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. |
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