| In recent years,PPP model has been increasingly employed in the field of public cultural industry,but various risks have also emerged.For example,due to the large demand for funds,social capital may let the government carry high interest debt through "Formal Equity—Essential Debt ",which increases the financial pressure in the future.Due to the low operation income,such projects often bind other resources such as land for financing during the construction period,rendering to difficulties that cannot be solved by existing policies.In addition,as the project payment mainly depends on the government’s feasibility gap subsidies,it is prone to lack of government financial funds,leading to problems such as the difficulty of recovery of investment by social capital.In this regard,this paper takes a cultural square in Guangxi as an example to analyze its risk identification,risk allocation,risk evaluation and risk prevention during the construction and operation transfer period of the project.At the onset,the paper identified the risk of public culture PPP project using the method of literature to put forward common risk factors in the early stage,construction period and operation transfer period.Second,this paper employed expert interview to clarify the specific project risks of the cultural square in Guangxi.Third,the questionnaire survey method is used to propose a reasonable way of risk allocation,then the key risk factors were obtained through quantitative evaluation,and the infectious characteristics among the key risk factors were analyzed using social network analysis(SNA).Finally,the corresponding risk prevention measures have been proposed.The result demonstrated that the characteristics of public cultural projects are large amount of investment,complex functional requirements,many participants,low income and uncertain demand.At present,public cultural projects are in the early stage of application,thus they face various problems such as immature operation,irregular contract management and lack of financial instruments.During the whole life of risk management of PPP project,the key risk factors are financing risk,approval delay risk,investment overrun risk,government intervention risk in the early stage and construction period;and insufficient government payment capacity risk,untimely government subsidies risk,operation cost overrun risk,low operation efficiency risk in the operation transfer period.Through SNA network analysis of key risk factors,it can be seen that financing risk is most significant node in the risk contagion system,which plays "transmitter" and "intermediary" roles to affect project duration and investment.The risk of decision-making mistakes is another key node,indicating that the government should avoid excessive intervention and should transfer the management power to special purpose vehicle.In addition,public cultural PPP projects should formulate a reasonable risk-sharing plan to lay the foundation for effective risk management,of which 18 risks are independently borne by the social capital,16 risks are independently borne by the government,and 13 risks are shared by both parties.The top three risks are the financing risk and delay risk assumped by the private sector and the decision-making risk assumped by the public sector.Based on these findings,this study put forward measures in the early stage and construction period of the project,including broadening financing channels;establishing a public-private responsibility sharing mechanism;establishing a strict contract management system;improving the operation system of the project company;establishing communication channels and mechanisms for all parties.Regarding the key risks during the operation transfer period,this study proposed that the government should incorporate the subsidies into the mid-to-long-term government financial budget,and the performance assessment during the construction period also should be incorporated in the performance assessment documents to meet the national requirements.This paper provides guidance for the government to carry out public culture PPP projects,lays theoretical and practical foundation for the private sectors to conduct effective risk management,and provides reference for the operation of similar PPP projects. |
