| In2007, the strategic objective called "Healthy China2020" was formulated by Chinese Ministry of Health. The above strategic objective was further subdivided into10specific goals and95single targets in2010. The first specific goal was to achieve further improvement in main national health targets and an average life expectancy of77years until2020.Life expectancy is a kind of reasonable evaluation of human life. The level of public health in a certain country (or region) can be assessed through comparative analysis of life expectancy. Since1950s, global life expectancy keeps growing.Population life expectancy of China in2010was73.27years. The above strategic objective means the life expectancy of our country will be increased by3.73years, averagely annual increase of0.38years. From1990to2005, life expectancy of Chinese residents was increased by4.4years, which was that of our neighboring countries. Stagnation of life expectancy in China deserves our serious consideration and attention.The improvement of global population health is one of the tremendous achievements of social economy and public health in20th century. When talking about social development and social health, we always choose economy development and health progress as two main topics. Rapid development of economy and health has been going on all over the world in the past decades. Economy growth has been accompanied by the improvement of human health. Thus, it is likely to be hypothesized whether there is a certain relationship between economy growth and health progress. Is there a positive or negative correlation between them? Moreover, the relationship between rapid economy development and public health of China is our concern, as well. In this project, we intend to explore the relation of economy development and health as well as the potential of health growth, based on the analysis of changes of health and economy development in different periods. Sequence data of health and economy development of China from1961to2010were applied in this research. On the other hand, there is a serious regional difference in life expectancy. Life expectancy of some cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai has been ranked high in the world. For Chinese cities, how to further improve life expectancy when it has been high and what is the potential to increase it is a new challenge.From the graph made by life expectancy trends all over the world, we can easily find an important feature of the global life expectancy trend:compared with male life expectancy, that of female is much higher. In China, the life expectancy of men and women has been greatly improved in the past few decades. It has been increasing in a relatively stable rate per year since1970s. However, gender differences led to irregular curves. To our knowledge, there has been no report on the gender difference and impact factors of life expectancy.Our study focused on the life expectancy of Chinese cities, in order to demonstrate the trend of life expectancy from2005to2010. We decomposed life expectancy in the last several years by age and etiology with decomposition method, quantified the effect of age and cause of disease on life expectancy, investigated current gender difference in life expectancy, analyzed the change of gender difference by age and cause of death. We hypothesized that life expectancy changes with the age and the leading causes of death varies among different age groups. Furthermore, we looked into the change of life expectancy within five years and tried to explore which age group and cause of death was the major factor that led to life expectancy variation by age difference in the past five years.The main results are as follows:1. Great changes have taken place in Life Expectancy and GDP per capti in China in the past50years. For the whole study period1961to2010, the correlation between GDP and LEB (both in male and female) was strongly positive, with the coefficient y0.708in male and0.736in female. This correlation became more significant when the study period is20years. The examination in Lag cross-correlations found out that the effect of economic development on LEB were occur almost always at lag zero.Regression models confirm the results of correlations, with the coefficient β of0.082, that is,1increase in Log-GDP led to0.082increase in Log-LE. This effect decreased with the time period, from0.398in1961～1980to0.02in1991～2010. In lag regression models, for the whole period, the effect was predominantly occurring at lag zero, and, to a lesser degree, at lag three and four. For the20-year-period, the positive effect in1961～1980and1980～2000were significant at lag zero, as for the effect in1971～1990and1991～2010, were predominantly occurring at lag zero, and also occur to a lesser degree at lag three and lag four.Life Expectancy at birth of Chinese urban citizen kept rising during the period of2005and2010. Chinese urban citizens had an average life expectancy at birth of76.57years in2005, and it reached to peak in2008with the number of80.03years. Then the LE number declined to78.09years in2010.2. The main causes of death of the urban citizen in China during the time period of2005-2010were circulatory diseases, cancer and respiratory diseases. Circulatory diseases had the highest mortality rate in Chinese cities and the mortality rate increased along with the time. Tumor was the second cause of death among Chinese urban citizens. The rapid increase of the mortality rate of cancer was caused by the rapid increase of mortality rate of lung cancer. The mortality rate of liver cancer was declining.We decomposed the life expectancy at birth by age. And the age-specific results showed that of the total longevity increase in life expectancy, mortality changes in55-85age-group made the largest contributions, especially the changes in70～75age-group made the largest single contribution.Of all the increase of0.5years during2006～2007, changes in70～85age-group made the most contributions. Of the decline of0.49years in life expectancy during2008～2009, changes in more than80years old age group made the largest contributions. Of the decline of1.45years in life expectancy during2009～2010, life expectancy in all age group except the5～15age group were declining.We decomposed the life expectancy at birth by cause of death. And the results showed that the total life expectancy increase (3.46years within3years) during the year2005～2008was contributed mostly by the circulatory disease.0.75-year-increase of life expectancy resulted from reductions in respiratory disease,0.64-year-increase from injury and poison,0.28years from cancer and0.06years from infectious disease. Between2008～2010, life expectancy declined1.94years with2years.1.22years resulted from circulatory disease,0.24years from cancer,0.24from respiratory disease, another0.24years from injury and poison,0.04years from infectious disease.84.19%of the total contributions of circulatory disease on life expectancy were the effect of cerebrovascular disease(CVD) and heart disease. And most of the contributions were caused among55～85years old people.The largest contributions of respiratory disease on life expectancy were the effect of Chronic lower respiratory diseases.88.73%of total chronic lower respiratory disease patients were more than65years old. The effect of pneumonia on life expectancy was always negative. The age-specific effect of pneumonia showed that80%of the total effects were caused by infants below5years old and the elder more than75years old.The effect of cancer on life expectancy mostly resulted from liver cancer. The age-specific effect curve of liver cancer on life expectancy showed that it began to rise at the age of25and reached the peak at age65. The contributions of lung cancer on life expectancy were always negative. The age-specific curve showed that all the age group except the35～55age group had negative effects. And the elder aged more than70years old made the largest contributions.3. Women live much longer than men in China urban citizen, with remarkable gains in life expectancy since2005. The gender differential reached a peak in2007, with the gap of5.3years. Mortality differentials between men and women in60～79age group made the largest contributions (42%-47%) to the gender gap in life expectancy in all6years. Between2005and2007when the gender gap in life expectancy widened, faster mortality decline among women in ages0-1age group and more than75years old age group made the largest contributions. Between2007and2008as the gender gap reduced, all the age groups except the1～15and50～55age groups made the negative efforts. In2009～2010, the widening gender gap in life expectancy was due to the positive effect in age group60～70. Among causes of death, cancer(1.638～2.019years), circulatory disease(1.2～1.6years), respiratory diseases (0.551～0.8years) made the largest contributions to the gender gap.33%～38%of gender gap were caused by cancer and among all the cancer, lung cancer contributed0.6years of overall gap. The contribution of cancer to the gender gap reduced along the time, mostly influenced by the narrowing effect of liver cancer on gender gap. Transport accidents and suicide were the external causes influenced the gender gap, contributing10～16%of the overall differentials. |
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