| The needs of the development of Shanxi Province is currently faced with the transformation,development of tourism is to achieve strategic transformation and one of the important path of industrial structure adjustment,but at the same time,Shanxi Province tourism development elements configuration is not reasonable,uneven spatial layout,unbalanced development of tourism,significant difference between regions,problems such as lack of overall thinking,if left unchecked,along with the gradually widening gap space,Tourism spatial imbalance will further deteriorate,resulting in idle and waste of resources,and ultimately not conducive to the sustainable coordinated development of tourism in Shanxi Province.How to optimize the allocation of factors and spatial pattern,integrate regional resources,reduce the gap between regions,and finally realize the balanced and comprehensive development of regional space while promoting the development of tourism economy?Accord with the need of current reality development.Current lack of from the "mispatch" space-space overflow-prediction system research,tourism economic development in combing tourism economic development,regional differences in economic development of tourism,tourist space mispatch,economic space relevance of tourism,tourist space overflow,travel economic forecasts,etc,on the basis of literature to explain the overflow,predict spatial mismatch,spatial relations.Therefore,with the help of Matlab,Arcgis,Geoda,Stata,Excel and other software,and the use of entropy weight method,gravity model,spatial mispatch index,two-dimensional combination matrix,spatial autocorrelation,spatial econometric model,scenario analysis,BP neural network model and other research methods,The research system from spatial mispatch,to spatial spillover,and then to forecast explores and explains the spatial pattern,spatial effect and evolution trend of tourism economic development.Firstly,the spatial mispatch theory is introduced to analyze the spatial pattern of tourism in Shanxi Province,and the spatial differences and disequilibrium state of tourism economic development are studied.Secondly,the spatial effect of regional tourism economy is studied based on the spatial spillover theory,and the development mechanism of tourism economy is explained.Finally,BP neural network model and scenario analysis are used to predict the development trend of tourism economy in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2025.This innovation attempts to expand the research results of tourism economy development to a certain extent,provide theoretical basis for promoting the sustainable and healthy development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province,and optimize the tourism development of Shanxi Province and promote the growth of tourism economy.To realize the balanced development of tourism economy.Firstly,the spatial pattern of tourism in Shanxi Province from the perspective of spatial mispatch is analyzed: Based on 11 years from 2010 to 2020 in Shanxi Province tourism economy,tourism resource,tourism traffic,tourism services and other related data,the tourism development in Shanxi Province under the space-time evolution of regional differences,spatial pattern,and explained to the research of spatial mismatch between area,Shanxi Province,between tourism economy and tourism related elements of space imbalance;Secondly,the spatial effect of regional tourism economic development is further discussed: Using spatial econometric method,based on 11 years in 2010-2020 tourism economy and affects the data of related elements of tourism economy,to build the model and using stata software to investigate the spatial correlation of regional tourism economic development,the relations between the variables of the role of the tourism economy of identification,analysis of regional tourism economy directly effect and spillover effect and total effect,Based on this,the coordinated development strategy of regional tourism is put forward.Finally,based on the "14th Five-Year plan" tourism development plan of Shanxi Province,scenario analysis and BP neural network prediction method are used to predict the tourism economic development in 2021-2025.The study reached the following conclusions:（1）the spatial pattern of tourism development and tourism space mispatch of the research shows that: because of the rich tourism resources around the degree of different,different geographical conditions,economic development level is differ,tourist reception capacity of different reasons,such as clear difference between regional tourism development in Shanxi Province,the tourism development space mispatch significantly,and the evolution of mispatch phenomenon still exist over time,displays in: The spatial distribution of tourism economy,tourism resources,tourism traffic and tourism service in Shanxi Province is not completely coordinated and matched.Generally speaking,effective and reasonable resource allocation can save resources and improve resource utilization rate,so as to obtain long-term economic benefits,while the existence of mispatch means that the supply of tourism infrastructure and tourism service conditions is insufficient or excessive,which is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy growth of tourism economy.（2）The results of spatial econometrics show that the development of tourism economy in a region is not only affected by local explanatory variables,but also by foreign explanatory variables;When the tourism resource index increases by 1%,the local tourism economy increases by 1.37%,which has no significant negative effect on the surrounding areas.In terms of the overall effect,the richer the tourism resource is,the greater the positive effect on the provincial tourism economy is.The tourism traffic has a significant negative effect on the local tourism economy,the local tourism economy decreases by 0.864% when the tourism traffic increases by 1%,and the local tourism economy increases by 0.496% when the tourism traffic increases by1%,and the tourism traffic has a negative effect on the provincial tourism economic development.When the tourism service index increases by 1%,the local tourism economy increases by 0.687%,and there is no significant negative impact on the local tourism.The per capita disposable income of residents has a significant positive impact on the local tourism economy,and also has a significant positive promotion effect on the tourism economy of surrounding areas.When the per capita disposable income of residents increases by one unit,the local tourism economy increases by2.436%,the tourism economy of surrounding areas increases by 1.654%,and the provincial tourism economy increases by 4.09%.The level of economic development has a significant negative impact on the local tourism economy and the surrounding tourism economy,that is,when per capita GDP increases by 1%,the local tourism economic index decreases by 0.802%,the surrounding tourism economic index decreases by 0.321%,and the provincial tourism economic index decreases by1.122%.The permanent population has a significant positive impact on the tourism economy of the region and its surrounding areas.Each unit increase of the permanent population drives the tourism economy of the region to increase by 0.552%,the tourism economy of the surrounding areas to increase by 0.337%,and the tourism economy of the whole province to increase by 0.889%.（3）Forecast the development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province in the next five years.The results show that the tourism economy of all cities in Shanxi Province will basically keep rising or unchanged from 2021 to 2025,and the tourism economy will develop stably,and the income gap between regions will decrease,and the tourism development of the whole province will be further balanced;From 2021 to2025,the fluctuation of tourism economy is the largest in Yangquan city,and the tourism economy increases the most,followed by Shuozhou City,and other cities have little change.By 2025,the tourism economic development from high to low is:Taiyuan,Xinzhou,Jinzhong,Yuncheng,Datong,Luliang,Jincheng,Yangquan and Shuozhou;There is a certain gap in the development of tourism economy under the three scenarios,but the gap is not significant.With the further increase of tourism resources,traffic conditions,tourism service capacity,local economic level,residents’ disposable income and population,the overall tourism economy is on the rise.（4）Due to the existence of spatial difference and correlation of tourism development between cities in Shanxi Province,regional tourism cannot develop in isolation,and it is necessary to study the path of coordinated development.The difference is the premise of the coordinated development of tourism.Therefore,when studying the influence mechanism of tourism economy,we should not be limited to studying the influence of relevant factors in the region on tourism economy,but should fully consider the spatial spillover effect in the development process of tourism economy to promote the coordinated development of tourism in Shanxi Province. |
