Research On Energy Consumption Prediction Model And Improvement Of Energy Conservation Management Of Commercial And Residential Buildings

low-carbon development in China clearly aims to achieve carbon peaking by2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.The Construction area is one of the three main areas of energy consumption and one of the main areas of direct and indirect carbon emissions.In 2019,energy used for building operations accounted for 22%of total social energy consumption in China.The types of energy consumed during the building operation phase are mainly electricity,coal and natural gas,with 70%of the energy used in both types of buildings-urban residential and public buildings-being electricity,which is dominated by indirect CO₂emissions.The population of cities and towns in China is increasing rapidly,and is also in the process of rapid urbanization,but there are still many existing old urban residential areas,and there are many"three no’s"in the old residential areas of cities and towns because they were built years ago.Most of the old neighborhoods consist of commercial and residential buildings,with the ground floor being the commercial floor and the upper floors being the residential floors.Therefore,energy efficiency retrofitting and energy management in building operation is an intense,long-term and difficult task.The main contents of this paper is constructing a predictive model for the energy consumption of commercial floors in typical commercial and residential buildings in Chengdu,by analyzing their energy saving potential,proposing effective recommendations for improving energy management,motivating energy users to save energy and reducing energy consumption in building operation with low-cost measures.Firstly,according to the characteristics of commercial and residential buildings in Chengdu,nine building energy consumption factors and their level numbers are selected from the relevant design parameters of the building envelope,air-conditioning system and indoor thermal disturbance,and 27 simulations are arranged by applying the orthogonal test method,and the energy consumption is simulated using De ST-c software to obtain the building energy consumption and air-conditioning energy consumption under each combination of factors and levels.The factors affecting building energy consumption and air conditioning energy consumption are analyzed using the ANOVA of SPSS,and six factors affecting the significance of building and air conditioning energy consumption in commercial floors of commercial and residential buildings are obtained.Secondly,a multiple regression analysis is carried out using SPSS on the six significant factors influencing energy consumption on the commercial floors of commercial and residential buildings to establish prediction models for building energy consumption and air conditioning energy consumption on the commercial floors of commercial and residential buildings.The energy consumption calculates by the prediction model is compared with the actual measure energy consumption,The commercial floor of a commercial and residential building in Chengdu was selected to verify the reliability of the model,and the relative deviation between the calculated and actual values was 9.7%.The predicted regression equation for energy consumption on the commercial floor of the commercial and residential building was obtained,thus verifying the accuracy of the prediction model.Finally,basing on the orthogonal test data,the energy saving potential of the commercial and residential buildings is analyzed and energy saving management measures are proposed to combine energy saving management with building property management at low cost and risk,and to suggest incentives for energy saving management with reference to the energy quota values for public institutions in Sichuan.