| The development of road transportation infrastructure and rural development has always been the focus of social development,but the relationship between the two is rarely studied deeply by scholars.Since the promotion of spatial econometric model,scholars have demonstrated that transportation infrastructure has significant spatial spillover effect on economic growth and narrowing urban-rural income gap,and has threshold effect on economic and industrial agglomeration.However,due to the differences of research objects and methods,there is no unified conclusion on the direction and size of spatial overflow.Therefore,through in-depth analysis of the spatial spillover effect and threshold effect of road traffic in prefecture-level cities of Anhui Province on rural development,this paper has a profound impact on optimizing the layout of all levels of road in Anhui Province at the present stage and improving the road traffic system.In this paper,the spatial econometric method is used to analyze the current situation and spatial distribution characteristics of rural development level and road traffic level,the spatial spillover effect of road traffic on rural development and the threshold effect of road traffic on rural development.Firstly,based on the data of each city in Anhui province from 2005 to 2019,rural development indicators are constructed from three aspects of economy,society and ecology.The development status and spatial distribution of rural development and road traffic of each prefecture-level city in Anhui Province are preliminarily analyzed by drawing statistical charts,calculating global Moran index and drawing Moran scatter chart.Secondly,geographical distance matrix,inverse distance matrix and economic distance and geographical distance combination matrix are introduced as spatial weight matrix.LM test and Wald test are used to select spatial Durbin model and decompose its spatial effect,so as to deeply analyze the size and direction of spatial spillover effect of highway transportation infrastructure on rural areas.Then through the stability and threshold effect test,the regression model of each grade highway threshold in each region of Anhui province is constructed.The results show that the development of rural areas and highway traffic in prefecture-level cities in Anhui province is unbalanced.The road density in Anhui province has a positive spatial spillover to rural development,and the indirect effect is greater than the direct effect,indicating that the improvement of road traffic is more inclined to improve the rural development level from the region as a whole.The direct effect,indirect effect and overall effect of each grade of highway are significant at the significance level of 1%,which means that the growth of each grade of highway not only promotes the rural development of the region,but also speeds up the rural development process of neighboring areas,that is,there is a positive spatial spillover effect,and all cities in the region develop together.Among them,the overall effect of low-grade highway is the largest,and its promoting effect on the level of rural development is also the most obvious.There is a significant threshold effect of road density on rural development in Anhui Province,and its promoting effect on rural development is gradually decreasing,indicating that the development of road density in various regions of Anhui province is approaching saturation state.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the following suggestions are given:increase investment to improve the highway transportation system;Rational layout planning,improve regional coordination;Broaden financing channels and increase resources development;Develop smart roads to improve the quality of roads;Pay attention to the development threshold and strive for optimal income. |
