Modeling And Risk Assessment On Train Operation And Organization Of Train Depot

In recent years,with the introduction of a series of major measures related to market reform,China’s railway industry has been attracting the attention of the capital market,public opinion,regulatory authorities and the public.The safety of railway operation and organization will be more and more prominent,and the train depot is one of the core components of railway operation and organization.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and high application value to adopt scientific theories and methods to identify and evaluate the safety risks in the operation organization of train depot.By means of mathematical statistics analysis,fuzzy mathematics,interpretative structural model,DS evidence theory and Bayesian network,this paper conducts a safety risk assessment modeling study on train operation and organization works of train depot A directly under Nan Chang bureau group company of China railway.Firstly,the traffic safety risk factors are identified by statistical analysis of the annual data of the safety risk management information base of train depot A.On this basis,combining the fuzzy mathematical theory with the interpretive structural model,the fuzzy interpretive structure model of the interaction between various risk factors is established and the model is calculated,so as to obtain the multi-level hierarchical structure of the traffic safety condition of train depot A,and output the structure learning result of the Bayesian network model.Secondly,the DS evidence theory was used to fuse the opinions of several experts,and the fusion results were output as the parameter learning results of the Bayesian network model.Through the above structure learning and parameter learning,the modeling process of the Bayesian network model was completed.Finally,Netica software was used to carry out reasoning calculation on the model,and the safety risk assessment and key risk factors diagnosis and identification of the train operation and organization works of train depot A were completed.The final calculation results were basically consistent with the actual situation,which verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the method in this paper.This paper provides theoretical basis and decision support for the train operation safety risk management of train depot.It provides a new way of thinking for the risk assessment research on train operation and organization of train depot.Under the background of big data,it is also a new attempt to mining analysis the data of railway safety risk information base.