Research On Cost Risk Evaluation And Countermeasures Of Real Estate Development Project Based On Unascertained Measure Theory

Over the past twenty years,Chinese economy has developed rapidly.The real estate industry has developed into an important force to pull the regional economy.It fostered a large number of systematic upstream and downstream industries,but also brought about problems such as high land price,high housing price,economic bubble,financial risk and so on.Therefore,in order to "cool down" the real estate market,the government continues to strengthen the regulation of the real estate industry.Under this background,the enterprise continuously improves market competitiveness by optimizing the cost.The competition in the real estate market is more intense,and the cost management is gradually becoming mature and systematic.However,the research on project cost in recent years mainly focuses on the construction enterprise,the construction stage or the cost management,and lacks the research on the whole process cost risk.Which leading to project benefit can’t satisfy the expected value.Therefore,this paper aims to study the cost risk in the whole process of real estate development projects,and to verify the applicability of the model with examples.On the basis of relevant theories,firstly,this paper generalizes the theories of cost management and risk management,and makes clear the characteristics of cost risk and the management process.Secondly,based on literature and engineering practice,the cost risk evaluation indexes are selected,and the cost risk evaluation index system is established.Then on this basis,the unascertained measure theory is used to construct the cost risk evaluation model.Finally,combining with a residential development project in Chengdu,the applicability and rationality of the evaluation model are verified,the evaluation results are analyzed,and corresponding suggestions for risk management and control are put forward.1.Based on the perspective of real estate enterprises,combined with literature and the actual situation of the project,a relatively comprehensive development project cost risk evaluation index system has been established.By referring to LEC evaluation method,the cost risk grade is divided.The grading standard of each index is determined,and the unascertained measure function of cost risk is established according to the grading standard.2.The development project cost risk evaluation model is established.According to the established risk evaluation index system,the unascertained measure theory and entropy weight method are used to calculate the unascertained measure of single index and multi-index of cost risk.The risk level is determined by confidence recognition criterion.This model can reflect the overall risk level of the project,and even the risk level of each factor and indicator.After risk ranking,the key indicators affecting cost risk can be identified,which is conducive to "point to point" risk prevention and control.3.The case analysis not only verifies the feasibility and rationality of the model,but also shows that the management risk and technical risk are the main factors.The change of visa,personnel quality and organization cooperation are the main risk points of management factors,while the technical risk mainly comes from drawings and contracts.The real estate market is highly sensitive to policy and market,so the risks of policy and market cannot be ignored.According to the evaluation results,some suggestions on reducing cost risk are put forward,which can provide some theoretical reference and basis for reducing cost risk and improving cost management efficiency in the future.