Real Estate Project Construction Cost Risk Analysis And Decision-making Research

Aiming at the problems of construction cost risk in real estate projects in our country,this paper focuses on the study of a method of cost risk analysis and decision making which is suitable for China's real estate industry,this method is mainly aimed at the large and medium scale real estate development projects in our country,which is used to make analysis and decision on the constructioncost risk of the project.The research of this method mainly includes the following three aspects:the analysis of construction cost risk in real estate development,establishing the risk assessment model based on the probability analysis,and the case analysis of Tianjin ecological city Shimao new town project.Specific contents are as follows:First.I haveaccessed to the relevant information on real estate construction,and combed out the specific process of China's real estate development,namely,making analysis of construction cost risk from each specific process,then from the perspective of controlling cost risk,obtaining the method of cost management,researching the basic procedures of cost management,and to correspond the cost management method and real estate development of each link,to control the cost risk of each link,so as to ensure the project cost to meet the pre-set conditions.Then,using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method,this paper makes a comprehensive study on the construction cost risk in the life cycle of real estate project development,on the basis of combing the specific aspects of the real estate development,using risk identification method proposed based on this paper,to identify the hidden risks in the real estate development life cycle.According to the usual methods of risk analysis and assessment method,this paper presents an improved analytical method and evaluation method,and analyzes the identifiedrisks,finds out the categories and characteristics analysis of these risks,makes evaluation of these categories and characteristics,obtains the possible consequences of these risks and puts forward the relevant theory and prevention measuresof risk control.According to the identified risks,using the method of probability analysis to evaluate the risk and establish the single factor risk analysis model and comprehensive risk factor analysis model,combined with risk-analysis software@risk to simulate and analyze the risk in real estate development process.Finally,this paper makes a case analysis of Tianjin ecological city Shimao new town project,identified thehidden risk factors from the cost of Shimaonew town project,using the probability analysis model established in this paper to analyze the risks identified in the project.using @risk software to simulate the risks,and finally has got the Probability distribution sampling process chart and cumulative cost curve under the risk factors;combined with the results of the model analysis,the response measures of risk factors are given.