Evaluation And Forecast Of Road Transportation Efficiency In The Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On DEA-BPNN

In recent years,as one of the most powerful economic corridors in China’s comprehensive strength development,road transportation construction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been advancing rapidly,road investment has increased year by year,and road infrastructure has been gradually improved.However,as an important basic industry,road transport has a direct impact on the pros and cons of road transport service supply,which in turn affects the efficiency and quality of economic development.Therefore,how the road transport operates efficiently and whether related resources are effectively used has always been an important management issue in road operations.It is clear that the efficiency of road transport in different improvement stages is also a decision-making requirement of policy makers in the specific implementation stage.At the same time,strengthening the efficiency of road transport operations also meets the urgent requirements of China’s current supplyside reform.Based on the data envelopment analysis model,this paper first measures and evaluates the road transport efficiency of 11 provinces(cities)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018.Secondly,the BP neural network is combined with data envelope analysis to construct a road transportation efficiency prediction model.By mapping the functional relationship of the data envelope model,the operating efficiency under different road transportation input and output is predicted.Finally,the scenario analysis is carried out based on the road transportation efficiency prediction model,so as to realize the gradual improvement of road transportation efficiency.The research work in this paper is as follows:(1)Constructing an evaluation index system for road transportation efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and analyze the characteristics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt road transportation efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives.In addition,a matrix analysis of total factor productivity and comprehensive efficiency will be performed to comprehensively reflect the quality of road transportation operation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the development trends of different regions from these two dimensions;(2)Based on data envelopment analysis,BP neural network is introduced.Through network design and parameter adjustment,a prediction model of road transportation efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is constructed,and simulation tests are performed to prove the feasibility of the model,and then the prediction ability is incorporated into the efficiency evaluation framework;(3)By setting strategic scenarios and forecasting scenarios,and setting principles for the two scenarios,the three-dimensional exponential smoothing method was used to predict the road transportation turnover of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2020.Based on the constructed efficiency prediction model,the road transportation efficiency under different scenarios is analyzed,and the planning is explored.Progressive improvement plan for the efficiency of road transportation in different phases.The study found that:(1)The overall efficiency of road transport in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is low,with low technical efficiency being the dominant factor,and presenting a "staircase" distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west,but there is a catchup in the downstream eastern provinces(cities)risks;(2)The main crux of the continuous decline in total factor productivity lies in the decline in the progress of road transportation technology and the existence of certain regional differences in space.The total factor productivity index ranges from high to low,in the middle-upper-downstream region of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in turn;(3)The efficiency values of road transportation in strategic scenarios are increasing,and strategic The setting of the scenario has strong flexibility and universality;(4)The efficiency values of the predictive scenarios are all less than 1,indicating that if the provinces(cities)of the Yangtze River Economic Belt continue to use the input index value of 2018 as the amount of road transport input resources,Compared to 2010-2018,road transportion decision-making units in all provinces(cities)will be invalid in 2020.