Forecasting Of Freight Volume In The Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On Spectral Clustering And RF-ANN

In recent years,the development of logistics economy has gradually become an important symbol to highlight national strength and reflect the degree of modernization.As the largest river basin economic belt spanning the three major regions in China,the development of the Yangtze River logistics economic belt is conducive to the coordinated economic development of the three regions.At present,the logistics development of the nine provinces and two cities along it in China has some shortcomings,such as the transportation between provinces and cities is uneven and the connectivity is also poor.The logistics has increasingly become the shortcoming that hinders and restricts the economic development of it.As an indispensable content of logistics development,the prediction and analysis of freight volume change trend within the belt is of great reference significance for coordinating the development of intra-belt logistics and promoting the rapid economic growth of the belt.In order to complete the prediction of freight volume as accurately as possible,this paper uses the importance degree calculation method combining digital processing and statistical analysis methods to screen the influencing factors,and combines the clustering technology with the prediction technology from the perspective of integral and local combination.Through the prediction research,the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The general clustering of nine provinces and two cities in the belt shows that: Shanghai and Zhejiang;Jiangsu,Hunan,Hubei and Sichuan;Anhui,Jiangxi,Chongqing,Yunnan and Guizhou are all in different levels of logistics development.The characteristic data of Shanghai and Zhejiang are in the same level,and they are divided into the first-line logistics development zone within the belt.The characteristic data of Jiangsu,Hunan,Hubei and Sichuan are in the same level,which are divided into the second-tier logistics development zone within the belt.The characteristic data of Anhui,Jiangxi,Chongqing,Yunnan and Guizhou are in the same level,which are divided into the three-line logistics development zone within the belt.(2)The calculation of the impact importance of freight volume in nine provinces and two cities of the belt shows that the three features with the greatest importance of freight volume in the same category of provinces and cities have the same type and order,and the three features with the greatest importance of freight volume in different categories of provinces and cities are different.The three most important characteristics in the first-line logistics development area are the GRP of the secondary industry,total retail sales of social consumer goods and consumer expenditure of residents.The three most important characteristics in the second-tier logistics development zone are the GRP of the tertiary industry,the budget revenue and the total retail sales of social consumer goods within the provinces.The three most important characteristics in the third-line logistics development zone are the total population at the end of the year,residents’ consumption expenditure and GRP of the primary industry.(3)The freight volume forecast of the belt from 2020 to 2025 shows that: according to the current natural development state of the belt,the annual freight volume of it will nearly double in the next five years,and the overall logistics development of the belt presents a huge development potential and space.