Refinancing Risks Management Of PPP Project

With the continuous improvement of our country’s comprehensive national strength,largescale infrastructure projects continue to emerge,and PPP(Public-Private-Partnerships)projects have also ushered in a stage of rapid development.As a new type of financing model,the PPP model can make better use of social capital and the government’s high-quality resources,and achieve win-win cooperation among multiple parties.However,due to the long execution cycle of the PPP project,the large number of participants,the huge construction funds,and the complicated construction process,the project decision-making will readjust the initial financing structure,which is the refinancing of the PPP project.Compared with the initial financing of the project,the refinancing of the project can determine the development trend of the project.Therefore,the research on the refinancing risk of the PPP project can provide a basis for the project’s refinancing decision.Firstly,risk identification.In view of the preliminary identification of PPP project refinancing risks,through literature review and expert interviews,combined with the characteristics of the project,6 categories of risks and 20 types of secondary risks are screened and summarized,and their sources and basis are described in detail.Then,from the perspective of Analytic hierarchy process,20 types of secondary risks are further subdivided into 30 specific risk indicators,and the risk evaluation index system and grade standards are established.Secondly,risk assessment.Through the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method to determine the weight of each index,and then through the fuzzy analysis method,calculate the comprehensive score of each level of risk indicators in PPP project refinancing,as well as the total score of project refinancing risk.This evaluation method can not only evaluate a single project,but also compare and evaluate multiple projects.the evaluation results are intuitive and can be used as the main basis for project risk analysis.Thirdly,risk allocation.As the main participants of the PPP project,the game analysis is carried out for the government departments and the private sector.Through the construction of static and dynamic game models,various game parameters are determined,and the risk share that should be shared by both parties in the case of risk transfer is obtained.Finally,based on the public rental housing PPP project in the B-city,the application of the actual cases of the above theoretical methods,proved the applicability and rationality of the risk assessment model and risk sharing model.According to the results of case analysis,in risk assessment,the participating risk is the primary risk factor for the refinancing of the project,followed by financial risk and project risks,risk assessment is divided into 0.8314,and the risk level is low.In the risk sharing,for coexisting risks,the government departments share risk share than the private sector,the government should bear more policies,financial environmental risks,and private sectors should bear more project risks.This paper constructs a PPP project refinance risk management framework,enriched risk management research in the application of PPP project refinance,research results can give project refinance decision-making reference value,for reducing PPP project refinance risks,assist projects The refinancing is successful,providing a method path.