Research On Risk Management Of PPP Urban Subway Project

As a large-capacity transportation mode,urban subway can effectively alleviate the problem of urban traffic congestion.However,the cost of the subway is extremely expensive.If the government relies solely on government finances,it will exert great pressure on the government and will not meet the needs of cities in the city.In this case,PPP model as an innovative financing model that can effectively attract social capital and technology.has been paid more and more attention.Urban subway PPP project has the characteristics of large investment,long time,high risk and so on.Whether the major risks in the project can be distributed fairly and reasonably,and whether the project partners can effectively and constrain each other is the key to the success of the project.Therefore,the research on project risk control has important theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of referring to the relevant literatures at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the background and needs of urban rail transit development and introduces the development of PPP model as well.Then the identification,assessment and sharing of urban rail transit PPP project risks are introduced.Based on the analysis of the financing mode of each city subway,the inevitability and significance of adopting the PPP model are demonstrated.At the same time,the main subjects of the PPP model are divided to clarify the duties,rights and risks of each subject.In view of the conflicts of interest between the government and the social capital parties,the inconsistent goals and the existing models of risk sharing are studied.Then the risk sharing model is established through the assumptions.and the degree of social capital participation in the project and the optimal results are clarified.Based on the attitude adopted by risk-sharing subjects in the face of risk,two evolutionary game models are constructed,and the conditions for the active cooperation of the sharing entities are analyzed.One game model for the study of cooperative behavior between social capital and government departments.The model aims to analyze the government’s constraints on social capital and regulate the investment behavior of social capital.Another game model for the study of government dishonesty behavior,which aims to analyze the cost of long-term credit loss faced by the government when it is dishonest or uses its strong position to cause damage to the social capital,and constrains government behavior.At last,according to the PPP project of Foshan Metro Line 2,the case analysis is carried out.And the practical significance of the three models of equity model selection,social capital failure and government letterlessness is analyzed.The corresponding research on risk control of urban subway PPP project is given.