Urban Rail Transit PPP Based On Game Theory Research On The Risk-sharing Mechanism Of The Project

PPP model has been widely used and infrastructure construction,and gradually introduced into the field of urban rail transit.However,due to the long cycle of urban rail transit projects,large funds,numerous participants and the complexity of the PPP model,in the project operation process,there will be a variety of new risk that need to be analyzed and identified by the participants.Evaluate new risks and share them in a timely manner,determine the proportion of risk bearers and risk-sharing parties.If the risk sharing is unreasonable,the enthusiasm of the social capital side will be reduced,the capital will not function properly,and the project will fail seriously.So,in order to make the investment and financing model of PPP can function smoothly in the urban rail transit project,and it is necessary to solve the risk-sharing problem of the project.In order to avoid or reduce the probability of risk occurrence,from the point of view of game theory and project risk sharing,according to the different degree of preference of different participants to different risks and the ability to deal with the risks,this paper aims to avoid or reduce the probability of risk occurrence from the point of view of game theory and project risk sharing.It enables participants to cooperate with each other,reach agreements,finance projects,and choose the right risk-bearers for different risks.On the basis of consulting and reading a large number of documents,this paper summarizes the current situation of risk sharing of PPP projects in urban rail transit at home and abroad,and analyzes the definition of PPP model,the classification and characteristics of PPP mode,and so on.And the basic theory of game theory.Then the general risk and sharing principle of rail transit PPP project are analyzed,and the risk sharing of rail transit PPP project is divided into three stages:pre-evaluation of risk identification and supervision of risk sharing.Finally,according to the characteristics of rail transit PPP project risk sharing,this paper analyzes the game process of government department,social capital side and financial institution,and divides the game process into two stages.The first stage constructs the game model between the government department and the social capital side to form the"alliance" and the financial institution,the second stage constructs the game model between the government department and the social capital side in the "alliance",and then solves the model to get the equilibrium solution.This paper mainly establishes the method or model of government department-social capital side-financial institution tripartite risk sharing in the case of risk preference and bargaining,and calculates the identified risk sharing and sharing ratio.Finally,according to the actual project,the actual proportion of each participant is obtained,and the suggestion of sub-risk sharing is put forward.