| Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly,cities in various regions are continuously expanding,and the rapid advancement of urbanization has led to an increasing demand for urban infrastructure.Especially in terms of daily travel,people’s requirements are getting higher and higher.In order to alleviate the pressure of urban transportation,various local governments have begun to focus their attention on emerging urban rail transportation.Urban rail transit has the advantages of speed,convenience,punctuality,environmental protection,etc.,and it is particularly in line with the current requirements of China’s sustainable development.However,due to the huge capital demand and slow return rate of urban rail transit,China’s financial sector is already overwhelmed,and a new investment and financing method is urgently needed to alleviate China’s financial pressure.The PPP(Public-Private Partnership)model is the key to solving the current problem of insufficient funds in China because it can raise huge amounts of investment funds.Starting from the current domestic background,this paper first proposes the urgency and necessity of research.Second,describe the relevant theories of urban rail transit,and summarize the characteristics,cases,and research of urban rail transit project risks to provide a theoretical basis for subsequent research.Third,conduct case studies on the specific case of Q City Metro Line 1,based on the risk factors identified in the existing research,combined with the actual situation of the specific project,determine the preliminary project risk list,through expert interviews and questionnaire,The list was further revised to form the final risk list of the project,including 29 risk factors such as delays in approval,government credibility,corruption,and contract changes.Fourth,to establish a project risk evaluation index system,first use the analytic hierarchy process,through a questionnaire,to compare and rank the risk factors one by one.Then use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the weight of the project risk,and rank the risks according to the calculation results to obtain the construction risk in the Q City Metro Line 1 project>operational risk>legal risk>political risk>market risk>natural risk,the project as a whole is at medium risk.Fifth,the risk appetite and bargaining game model under incomplete information is used to calculate the project risk sharing ratio.The results show that the government departments in Q City Metro Line 1 mainly bear political and legal risks,and the private sector mainly bears construction and operation risks,natural risks.The market risk is jointly borne by the government and the private sector,and the actual proportion of government responsibility is more than 60%,which exceeds the proportion of risk borne by the private sector.Finally,specific countermeasures are proposed for the results of risk sharing.Sixth,sum up the research results,and point out the shortcomings among them,put forward the outlook for the future,and provide a meaningful reference for future related PPP projects.Rail transit construction currently occupies an important position in China’s urban construction.Promoting the use of the PPP model to build urban rail transit not only helps ease government financial pressure,but also broadens the channels for social capital to participate in national project construction.As for the PPP projects that have been launched at this stage,there are not a few that will eventually fail due to various reasons.A set of scientific and reasonable risk management theory is an important guarantee for the implementation of PPP projects.Starting from the actual case of Q City Metro Line 1,this paper proposes a risk sharing plan and specific countermeasures for the risk factors in the Q City PPP project,which has practical reference significance for the subsequent construction of urban rail transit PPP projects. |
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