Research Of Risk Propagation And Cascading Failures On Prefabricated Building Supply Chain

Prefabricated building is a new highly efficient and energy-saving production method in the construction industry.Prefabricated building supply chain has been vigorously promoted in China with the transformation and upgrading of China’s construction industry.Prefabricated building has advantages such as low daily maintenance costs,energy conservation,material savings,carbon emissions reduction,safety hazards reduction,labor costs reduction,improved production efficiency,and enhanced project quality.From the perspective of participants,there are many stakeholders in the supply chain of prefabricated building,and there are close cooperation relationships among the stakeholders.Compared with the traditional supply chain,the supply chain of prefabricated building is more complex,and each entity needs a high degree of coordination and unity,which poses new challenges to the supply chain risk management.Existing research usually studies risk management from the perspective of risk assessment,while prefabricated building supply chain operates in a non-linear,iterative,complex and dynamic environment.The existing risk management research can not meet the requirements of prefabricated building supply chain risk management.Complex network theory provides a new idea for risk management of prefabricated building.This paper sorts out the relevant research results of risk propagation and complex networks in the prefabricated building supply chain.The complex network theory is used to explore the risk propagation mechanism and cascading failure effect on the supply chain network through modeling and simulation.This paper analyzes the structure and main characteristics of the current prefabricated building supply chain in our country and constructs a complex network.Based on the structure and characteristics of the prefabricated building supply chain,this paper represents the supply chain network as a four-level supply chain consisting of "contractormaterial supplier-prefabricated building manufacturer-construction party".Following the generation rules of complex networks,the complex network of the prefabricated building supply chain is constructed.This paper analyzes the mechanisms of risk propagation in the complex network of the prefabricated building supply chain.Based on the identification of risks in the literature,17 types of risks are classified into 9 categories.For different types of risks,the SIR model is used for risk propagation research.Drawing on the theory of cascade failure in networks,the cascade failure effects of risk propagation in the complex network of the prefabricated building supply chain are studied.The dynamic processes of risk propagation and cascade failure interact with each other,and neither of these effects can be ignored.Therefore,this chapter establishes a model of the interaction between infectious diseases and cascade failure and uses Python software to simulate it on the complex network of a prefabricated building project supply chain.The cascade failure effect of risk propagation is studied from four aspects: different risk transmission rates,different node types,different network scales and adopting risk prevention measures.This paper uses two approaches to control risk propagation on supply chain networks,comparing different complex network immunization strategies and formulating risk control strategies for risk propagation patterns.The paper analyzes the risk propagation in the prefabricated building supply chain from a network perspective,which provides a new research paradigm for controlling risk propagation in this field.The constructed model of risk propagation and cascade failure provides a scientific method for understanding the interaction of risks in the prefabricated building supply chain.The research findings of this paper help deepen the understanding of the laws of risk propagation in the prefabricated building supply chain and provide theoretical basis for risk control in the prefabricated building supply chain.