Research On Construction Risk Assessment And Control Of Nanchang ±800kV Converter Station Construction Project

With the vigorous promotion of new infrastructure construction and the rapid growth of national power demand,the number of large-scale power infrastructure construction such as UHV transmission projects is increasing year by year.Therefore,it is very important to control the risks of power engineering projects,especially the risks in the construction process,in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the project and meet the stable power consumption.In this paper,the author focus on the construction process of Nanchang ± 800 k V converter station construction project,talking about major risk factors which may happen during the process of project construction.Besides,after full assessment of risks,the author comes up with effective and feasible control measures to decrease risks.This paper also aims at providing reference for the risk research of similar power infrastructure projects.The research includes three phases,which can be concluded as follows:(a)Identifing risks.According to the construction content,construction process and construction characteristics of Nanchang ±800k V converter station project,WBS-RBS risk identification method is introduced to identify construction risks.This method combines the work breakdown structure and the risk breakdown structure to form a risk discrimination matrix,thereby judging each risk one by one and obtaining a risk identification list.(b)Evaluating risks.Firstly,the Vague-set index screening method is used to eliminate redundant factors in the risk identification list,so as to establish a risk-evaluating index system,which can assess risks in a more efficient and accurate way.Secondly,both ranking value of Vague-set and Entropy Method are utilized to calculate index weight,which can optimize weighting results.The former is a subject way,while the latter is an object one.Thirdly,on the basis of Cloud Theory,a model for risk assessment is established.With the model,data quantitative description and image analysis are conducted in terms of project as whole,risk categories and risk factors,and thus,risk status and risk distribution are intuitively determined.(c)Controlling risks.Firstly,under consequences of risk assessment and realities of the project,the author analyzes why risks emerge and risk factors are divided into different categories on the basis the significance and sources of them.As a result,the risk control decision matrix comes into being.Secondly,based on the risk control decision matrix,the risk control strategies and countermeasures are planned for each risk factor.Thirdly,the Cloud Model is used again to predict the effect of risk control and discuss the effectiveness of the risk control methods.Through this study,the main research results are as follows:First,through the identification and screening of risks,an index system(including 5categories and 23 evaluation indexes)for evaluating risks in Nanchang ±800k V converter station project is established.Secondly,through risk assessment,it is concluded that the overall construction risk status of Nanchang ± 800 k V converter station project is“second-level”.Thirdly,through risk control,the 23 key risk factors are classified into 8internal important factors,9 external important factors and 6 secondary factors,and corresponding risk control suggestions are planned respectively.Fourthly,through the prediction analysis,it is found that the risk improvement effect is good after the project is under control by this method,which confirms that the risk control method in this paper is effective.