Evaluation Of Suburban Railway PPP Projects Considering Real Option Of Passenger Flow Risk Sharing

The suburban railway is a new type of rail transit mode that serves the traffic demand between urban and suburban area.At this stage,China has plenty of construction requirements of suburban railway.According to the investment characteristics of suburban railway project,this thesis proposes to adopt the Public-Private Partnership(PPP)model in suburban railway project,and conducts research on the issue of value assessment,which is a common concern of all participants in PPP project.First of all,this thesis analyzes the features of the suburban railway project,and summarizes its characteristics including high uncertainty in passenger flow,costly in project construction and operation,and weakly in profitability.For quasi-operational PPP projects like suburban railway project,the payment method of feasibility gap subsidy is often adopted.This thesis analyzes the shortcomings of the existing feasibility gap subsidy model,and proposes to introduce bilateral guarantees in the form of passenger flow risk sharing to subsidize the project operation period.With regard to the selection of value evaluation methods,this thesis points out the limitations of traditional evaluation methods in suburban railway projects,and proposes the introduction of real option theory to evaluate project values under uncertain conditions.Next,this thesis constructs a value evaluation model that considers passenger flow risk sharing.Based on Monte Carlo method,the future distribution of passenger flow is obtained.Then the Black-Scholes pricing model was used to evaluate the value of composite real options from the risk sharing mechanism.Based on the principles of risk and benefit sharing of PPP projects,this thesis calculates the risk commitment level of project participants based on the value-at-risk model,and uses this value as one of the parameters to build a project benefit allocation model based on the Shapley value method.Finally,this thesis selects a suburban railway PPP project in Zhejiang Province for a case study.The results show that the introduction of passenger flow risk sharing mechanism in the project can effectively increase the value of the project and reduce the risk of project revenue.The value evaluation model proposed in this thesis can be applied to actual project evaluation and support the investment decision-making of the participants,which has strong practicality and practical significance.