Research On Risk Sharing Scheme Decision-making Of Water Conservancy PPP Project

Hydropower project is an important infrastructure construction project in the country,the development of hydropower can not only provide the country with substantial power energy support,but also play a comprehensive social benefit such as flood control,irrigation,shipping,water supply and tourism.Therefore,the state investment in hydropower projects continues to increase,cascade hydropower stations gradually increased.However,the traditional investment mode of construction makes the government face the difficult problem of high financial pressure and low construction efficiency.In recent years,in order to promote the investment and development of hydropower projects,the government has put forward the application of PPP model to the construction of hydropower industry,and has promulgated a series of relevant policies and operational guidelines to standardize the operation of PPP projects in hydropower engineering.Because the PPP project of hydropower project has large investment capital,long cooperation cycle,poor working conditions and many stakeholders,there are many risks in the implementation process of both government and social capital.It is very important that how to integrate the resource of government and social capital to realize the reasonable sharing of risk,which is related to the safety of the project,the enthusiasm of the participants and the reasonable design of the scheme,so it is of great significance to study the risk sharing of hydropower PPP project.Aiming at the decision optimization of hydropower PPP project risk sharing scheme,this paper comprehensively considers psychological behavior deviation and the uncertainty of risk information,combined with cloud model theory and foreground theory,and constructs the risk sharing decision model of PPP project in hydropower project.The details are as follows:Firstly,by consulting and collating the relevant references,this paper analyzes the characteristics and risk sharing principles of PPP project participation in hydropower projects,and analyzes the applicability of risk sharing decision-making methods.Secondly,the risk characteristics,risk sharing index identification methods and principles of PPP project in hydropower project are analyzed,and combined with construction site investigation,the index list of risk sharing of PPP project in hydropower project is finally sorted out.Then,the risk sharing indicators are established by improving the cloud model generation algorithm,and combined with the concepts of cloud distance,cloud possibility,the cloud foreground value function is obtained by appling the foreground theory,the weight of each risk sharing index are selected by the deviation maximization method,and synthesizing and calculating the index weight and cloud foreground value by fuzzy synthesis algorithm.Then deciding the best scheme.Finally,taking a PPP project of a hydropower project as an example,taking full account of the psychological behavior influence of quantitative decision makers in the decision-making process,using other risk sharing schemes as reference points,the comprehensive cloud foreground values of each scheme are calculated,and the optimal risk sharing decision scheme is selected by comparing comprehensive cloud foreground values of each scheme.