The Risk Analysis Of Supply Chain In Prefabricated Housing Construction Stage

The transformation and upgrading of the construction industry is an inevitable trend in the development of China’s construction industry.As a representative of the new type of residential industrialization,prefabricated houses adopts factory production,mechanized construction and scientific management,which changes the traditional way of building houses,reduces labor intensity,reduces the consumption and waste of construction materials,shortens the construction period of houses,reduces construction costs,improves the construction level of houses and the quality of houses,and promotes the green and high-quality development of urban and rural construction.Compared to the traditional residential construction process,the construction phase of prefabricated housing includes project design,production and transportation of prefabricated components,and assembly of components,which complicates the supply chain structure and greatly increases the scope and degree of risk in the supply chain during the construction phase.How to guarantee the timely and effective identification and control of risks by all nodal enterprises in the supply chain of prefabricated houses and promote the collaborative work of all parties in the supply chain are related to the construction safety and construction benefits of prefabricated houses.Therefore,this paper takes the supply chain of the construction stage of prefabricated houses as the research object,carries out the risk identification,analysis and evaluation of the supply chain,and determines the risk level of the supply chain of the construction stage of prefabricated houses with the actual project,and proposes the corresponding risk control measures.Firstly,the theories related to supply chain management of prefabricated housing and risk management of construction phase of prefabricated housing are explained,and the scope of construction phase of prefabricated housing is redefined.Based on the reference model of supply chain operation,the internal and external risk factors in the construction phase of the prefabricated housing supply chain were counted,screened and categorized using literature frequency statistics and expert survey method,and a risk evaluation index system containing5 primary indicators and 23 secondary indicators was constructed,five risk evaluation levels were determined based on relevant norms and literature,and the range of values for each risk level was given.Secondly,ANP method,correlation coefficient method and Lagrange multiplier method are used to calculate subjective,objective and combined weights,respectively,according to which the topo cloud model for risk evaluation is established,the characteristic parameters of each index are calculated,and the visual cloud diagram generated by MATLAB is used to determine the risk level.Finally,the subjective,objective and combination weights of its risk evaluation indicators were calculated using the resettlement housing construction project as an example.The ranking of the degree of influence of the indicator layer on the quasi-lateral layer and the quasi-lateral layer on the target layer was obtained.A risk evaluation model was established,and the overall risk level of the project was judged to be medium risk,in which procurement risk,manufacturing and transportation risk,assembly risk,and management risk were medium risk,and external environment risk was lower risk,and countermeasures for medium risk were proposed.The risk evaluation model of combined weighting-cloud model is used for the risk evaluation of the supply chain of the construction stage of prefabricated houses,which not only considers the degree of influence between risk indicators,but also intuitively reflects the risk level.Through the calculation and analysis of actual engineering cases,the applicability and effectiveness of the weight calculation method and risk evaluation model in the study of supply chain risks in the construction phase of prefabricated houses are verified,and a new way of thinking is provided for the risk management of the supply chain in the construction phase of prefabricated houses.