Research On Risk Transmission Path And Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Construction Supply Chain

As a new construction method combining traditional construction with advanced manufacturing,prefabricated construction(PC)has made rapid development in China in recent years because of its advantages of green,energy-saving,safety and high efficiency.Popularizing PC is helpful to the transformation of traditional construction methods.Good supply chain operation of PC is the key to further develop PC in China.Because there are many operational links and more participants in PC supply chain(PCSC),its supply chain is facing more risks.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on the risk study of PCSC.The existing research on risk management of PCSC mostly focuses on supply chain schedule risk and stakeholder risk,and the research on the whole process risk of supply chain operation is still in the exploratory stage.In addition,the existing research focuses on the assessment of risk level,but seldom pays attention to the risk transmission in PCSC.Therefore,based on the perspective of the whole process operation of PCSC,this paper comprehensively identifies potential risk factors,and analyzes the influence relationship between risk factors to explore the risk transmission law.On the basis of defining the risk transmission path,this paper evaluates the risk of PCSC and identifies key risk factors,so as to understand the risk of PCSC more comprehensively.This paper combs the relevant theoretical basis and preliminarily identifies the risk factors by literature analysis,divides the operation stages of PCSC with SCOR model,analyzes the information flow,capital flow and logistics of all participants in PCSC under EPC mode,constructs the operation network and work breakdown structure of PCSC.On this basis,the list of risk factors of PCSC is supplemented and determined by expert interview,65 risk factors are identified.Combined with the risk conduction theory,this paper divides the risk factors into four categories according to the risk source,risk intermediary,risk event and risk result,with a total of 14 latent variable types.After that,347 sample data are obtained through questionnaire collection and screening,and the structural equation model is used to analyze the risk transmission path of PCSC and identify the six key risk transmission path,the safety risk generated in the transportation stage of components leads to the interruption of supply chain operation and risk loss,which needs to be paid special attention to.The paper uses the fuzzy matter-element model based on Vague set to evaluate the overall risk level of PCSC,under the background of the case,the overall risk level of the prefabricated construction supply chain is moderate,and the poor quality of cast-in-place concrete,poor communication among participants,slow construction progress,increased procurement costs and traffic accidents are the key risk factors.Finally,the key risk transmission path and key risk factors are combined to put forward management suggestions and summarize the article.The research results have reference and guiding significance for the risk management of PCSC.