| In recent years,the growth rate of investment in China’s power grid has been slowing down,which means that we should pay more attention to lean management and take into account the relationship between internal and external,speed and quality.Moreover,China has a vast territory.The physical location,energy resources and environmental endowments of power grids in different regions are different,and the level of economic and social development is different.As a result,the development characteristics of power grids in different regions are different,and the focus,time sequence and scale of power grid development are not the same.And due to the continuous change of macro policy,it brings more complexity to the investment of power grid.The traditional investment risk analysis is mostly carried out after the event control in the case of relatively stable internal environment,which can not achieve the prediction and control of the future,and does not have the ability to resist external interference,which will be adverse to the long-term development of enterprises.Therefore,the power grid enterprises can not use the traditional analysis method to quantify the risk,should be based on the development of different types of power grid,considering the differences between the macro and micro scenarios,targeted risk analysis,in order to reduce the risk to the greatest extent and improve the efficiency of investment.In this paper,the quantitative analysis of power grid investment risk is mainly in the differentiated development path,the quantitative analysis of the risk caused by planning infrastructure project investment to the power grid,so as to carry out targeted management activities.Firstly,this paper introduces the theory of power grid development,investment object and investment risk from the aspects of theoretical basis,method introduction and content meaning.Secondly,the relevant factors affecting the development differences of power grid are sorted out,and the differentiation evaluation index system is established from the macro and micro perspectives.This paper collects data from the data space formed by the statistical data of relevant enterprises and governments,and uses the principal component cluster analysis method to study the differentiated development status of 23 provincial power grids in China.On this basis,combined with the functional characteristics of different infrastructure projects,five differentiated development paths are summarized,which lay the foundation for the subsequent differentiated power grid investment risk quantification.Then,the security risk,economic risk and environmental risk involved in the power grid investment project are identified,and a quantitative model reflecting the risk transmission relationship between the project investment and the whole power grid is built based on system dynamics.The applicability of the method,the definition of model boundary conditions and the construction of model equations are explained,and the reliability of the model is tested with relevant variables.Finally,based on the actual situation of J Province,the quantitative model of power grid investment risk is empirically analyzed.The first is to consider the investment proportion of various infrastructure projects under the differentiated development path,and select the optimal development path of J Province through the comparative analysis of the fluctuation of investment risk value.Secondly,it analyzes the multi scenario risk value of power grid investment in J Province under the optimal path,and makes a specific quantitative analysis of various risk indicators.Through the research work of this paper,we can provide new ideas and directions for the differentiated development path of power grid,and provide a reliable model for the quantitative analysis of power grid investment risk. |
