| Build a new power system with new energy as the main body is the inevitable choice to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.As an important "bridge" and"link" connecting the power supply side and the consumption side,the power grid enterprises will further highlight their role as a platform for resource allocation and the ability to guarantee safe and reliable power,and the demand for upgrading from power grid to energy internet is becoming more and more urgent.Under the new situation of power system transformation and upgrading and strict supervision of power grid investment,power grid investment projects need to face external economic and social development,internal operation quality and efficiency of the dual demand.There are a series of internal and external risks.Under the condition of taking into account social responsibility and sustainable development of power grid,efficiency and effectiveness become important decision factors for power grid investment,construction and operation.Based on the core content of power grid investment projects in the context of the new electric power system,this paper identifies the risk factors of power grid investment projects by taking the risk affecting power grid investment projects as the entry point.Revealing the impact of new power system characteristics on grid investment links and investment risks.To study quantitative risk assessment,early warning models and application issues considering the impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of grid investments.This paper proposes a risk identification model for power grid investment projects based on the fuzzy Delphi method,and then extracts key risk factors and constructs a risk index system for power grid investment projects containing three dimensions:operational risk,economic risk,and external environmental risk.A quantitative assessment and early warning model for grid investment risk was constructed based on the risk indicator system,and the objective and subjective weights of the indicators were determined using the inverse entropy weighting method and the gray DEMATEL method,respectively.Then,we calculate the portfolio weights based on the principle of minimum heterogeneity of subjective and objective weights,propose a risk evaluation method based on differential grey correlation to improve TOPSIS,and construct a quantitative evaluation model for grid investment risk.Based on the risk assessment results,a risk warning model for investment projects was constructed from two perspectives:uni-dimensional and integrated dimensions.The results show that the risks of grid investment projects are mainly in the security and stability risks that may occur during the operation process.In the context of "double carbon" goal and new power system construction,grid investment projects are also increasingly concerned about the environmental risks associated with clean energy grid connection.With the increase of early warning value,the rating of each dimension of the grid investment project is more and more serious than the early warning value,and the corresponding risk level is higher and higher.The hybrid multi-attribute decision making based risk assessment model for power grid investment projects constructed in this paper is assigned with a combination of subjective and objective weights.It can make full use of the original information of indicators and consider the correlation between indicators on the basis of reducing subjectivity to ensure the reliability of the weighting results.The proposed DRGRATOPSIS method overcomes the vertical bisector problem of conventional TOPSIS,and the DQGRA method considers both geometric and numerical similarities,eliminating the need to set discriminatory coefficients and making the evaluation results more scientific.The proposed risk early warning mechanism portrays the correspondence between unidimensional risk levels and early warning levels,and takes the noncompensability into account between unidimensional risks.The research results of the paper can support the investment decision of power grid projects and the investment strategy of power grid enterprises,and help the construction of new electric power systems and the high-quality development of the power industry. |
