The Research And Application On The Quantification Scheduling Evaluation Model Of Operational Safety Risk In Guangdong Power Grid

In recent years, the risk assessment theory have been widely used in power system, suchas the analysis of long-term planning and operation of the power grid safety grid. Riskassessment for planning can effectively the equipment failure factors and load fluctuation ofrandom factors into consideration preferably power grid planning, to ensure the maximumeconomic benefit in the planning results can meet the power grid security under the premiseof. Grid oriented risk assessment can run on the grid years, months, Zhou Heri mode ofoperation risk, corresponding operation mode under the given risk level, in order to makecontrol measures to ensure the risk in advance, can be safe and stable in any operation mode.The current power system operation risk assessment methods and practical evaluation systemwill focus on power system steady state operation after completion, the time span fromseveral minutes to several hours, while ignoring the risk of operation during the execution ofthe. This paper mainly studies on the dispatching operation process of quantitative riskanalysis, power dispatching operation tasks are to be in keeping with power and real-timebalancing load, command the power safety and economic operation, risk factors in the processof scheduling operations (such as weather, load fluctuation, equipment failure and somehuman factors) normal execution may effect of the operation, bring unpredictable risks to thewhole power grid.The main content of this paper is about the dispatching operation risk quantification andanalysis. Statistical classification through daily operation control of the Guangdong Grid Copower dispatching center, a detailed analysis of the risk factors existing in operation in theimplementation process, including operational risk source and effect factors of real timeoperating risk, considering the influence of uncertain factors operation risk assessment model,the practical problems and according to operation personnel concerned the establishment ofpractical operation, the risk index system. The development of dispatching real-time riskassessment system, which is compatible with the existing EMS platform and electronicstarting system in Guangdong, can realize the maintenance of single risk assessment,operation ticket to check the timing of operation risk and operation ticket real-time practicalimplementation risk control process, has raised the level of dispatching automation in theGuangdong tune. This paper also studies the related theory of grid zero operational riskassessment and passive operation risk assessment.