Research On Investment Risk Evaluation Of Pumped Storage Power Station Considering Operation Demand Of Regional Power Grid

With the proposal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060,in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions of energy and power industry,the development scale of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaic will be further expanded in the energy production level,UHV will also be further developed in the power transmission level,and in the energy consumption level,the implementation of power substitution strategy,power consumption of the tertiary industry and residential area will be further expanded The proportion of domestic power consumption is gradually increasing,which puts forward higher requirements for the regulation capacity of power grid.However,as a high-quality regulating power supply,the installed capacity growth rate of pumped storage power station is not ideal,so it is necessary to analyze the investment risk of pumped storage power station,so as to improve the investment enthusiasm of pumped storage power station.The investment risk of pumped storage power station comes from the degree of function and the rationality of electricity price.The degree of function depends on the operation demand of regional power grid.Therefore,this paper only analyzes the investment risk from the perspective of operation demand of regional power grid.Based on the analysis of the above problems,this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars and experts on the operation mechanism,construction and operation benefits and risk evaluation theory of pumped storage power station,and puts forward the idea of investment risk evaluation from the perspective of regional power grid operation demand,Risk factors are identified at the level of the impact of regional grid operation demand on the contribution level of pumped storage power stations;The interpretive structure model is used to construct the evaluation index system,and the cooperative game and variable weight theory are used to determine and optimize the weight of each evaluation index in each regional power grid;Based on the cloud model,this paper evaluates the investment risk of pumped storage power stations in each regional power grid,and puts forward the next development strategy based on the evaluation conclusion.In the identification of investment risk factors of pumped storage power station in regional power grid,the development status and trend of pumped storage power station in each regional power grid are analyzed firstly,and the operation requirements of adjusting system power structure,ensuring safe and stable operation of power grid and improving energy storage capacity of regional power grid are investigated and analyzed,Then the investment risk factors are identified based on the operation demand of regional power grid.According to the identified risk factors,the investment risk evaluation index system is constructed by using the interpretive structure model.On this basis,the index weights are obtained by using the compatibility matrix method,entropy weight method and variation coefficient method.The combination weight is calculated based on the cooperative game theory and the weight optimization is carried out by combining with the variable weight theory to obtain the index weight of each evaluation index in each regional power grid.In the investment risk assessment of the pumped storage power stations in regional power grid,according to the energy structure and load characteristics of each regional grid,the standard cloud of each evaluation index is constructed by using the comprehensive evaluation model based on the normal cloud model.The investment risk level of the pumped storage power station in each regional grid can be calculated by combining the variable weight of the optimized index.Based on this,taking East China as an example,the paper analyzes the construction of single indicator cloud of each evaluation index,and obtains the risk level of each index,and then can judge the main contribution of pumped storage power station in East China regional grid.Based on the evaluation of investment risk of pumped storage power stations in each regional power grid and the analysis results of single index risk level,the paper puts forward the strategic suggestions for further development of pumped storage energy,so as to promote the investment enthusiasm of pumped storage power stations.