Research On Kill Probability Of Air Defense Rockets

Air raid and anti-air attack are the main modes of the current world war.Throughout the war,it determines the success or failure of the war.Anti-air attack as a worldwide problem is one of the topics that countries are competing to study at present.This topic comes from a certain type of rocket air defense weapon system project and takes a certain type of multi-tube air defense rocket system as the application background.The killing probability of the air defense weapon system to three typical targets of cruise missile,helicopter gunship and UAV are studied.This paper mainly includes the following contents:(1)This paper focuses on the overall scheme of the air defense rocket launcher studied in this paper and the structure of its warhead,simulates the warhead,and obtains the attenuation trend of fragment velocity.(2)According to the structural characteristics of three typical targets(armed helicopter,UAV and cruise missile),the vulnerability modeling of cruise missile,armed helicopter and UAV are established by using the method of orthogonal plane modeling.according to the coordinate damage law,the calculation model of killing probability of rocket weapon firing in the air is established.(3)Aiming at the calculation of annihilation probability of air defense rocket launcher to three typical targets,the software for calculating the annihilation probability of air defense rocket launcher is developed by using GUI module of MATLAB,and the visualization of calculating annihilation probability is realized.(4)Through the simulation,it is concluded that under the single-shot system,the single-shot,double-shot and four-shot kill probability is adopted for three typical targets under different routes;under the continuous gun system,the killing probability of single-shot,double-shot and four-shot is adopted,and the four-shot firing is the main firing mode,and the optimal firing sequence is obtained based on the principle of reducing the initial disturbance(5)of the rocket launcher.(6)The killing probability of three kinds of targets is analyzed under different firing conditions,the influence of target oblique distance and velocity on air defense rocket launcher is obtained,and the influence of single error factor and combined error factor on killing probability is analyzed.the way to improve the probability of annihilation is found.