Risk Evaluation And Application Of Wind Power Project Based On Improved Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

The unreasonable use of fossil energy in the world aggravates the global environmental problems and energy crisis.At present,the development and utilization of new energy such as wind energy has become an inevitable trend.Wind energy is a kind of renewable clean energy.With the encouragement and support of the state,wind power industry has developed rapidly.During the 14 th Five Year Plan period,China will continue to increase investment in wind power and other green energy industries.The investment,construction and operation of wind power project is a complex system engineering,which is characterized by large investment,long construction period,difficult coordination and operation,and high professional requirements.There are various risks in the process of the project.Therefore,it is of great value to carry out the risk management research of wind power project.In this research,the methods of data collection,consultation and research,improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and decision tree algorithm model are used to comprehensively analyze the feasibility reports and other relevant data of 20 wind power projects,and identify the risk factors existing in wind power construction projects;the risk indicators of samples are extracted,and the risk evaluation index system is established according to the principle of index system establishment Through the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the weight of each index is determined,and on this basis,the risk of each risk index and the overall index of the project is calculated;the decision tree algorithm is used to train the model of the calculation data,and the decision tree judgment logic and the overall evaluation result of the wind power project risk evaluation are put forward;the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is verified through the actual engineering case The sub fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the decision tree model of wind power project risk evaluation are verified by examples,and the sensitivity analysis of its risk index is carried out;finally,the technical measures for wind power project risk response are put forward.The specific work contents are as follows:(1)On the basis of referring to a large number of scholars’ relevant research,this paper comprehensively analyzes and compares the key data of several wind power projects,takes the overall risk of wind power projects as the target layer,classifies and identifies four kinds of middle layer risk indicators,including natural risk,economic risk,policy risk and construction risk,and 13 bottom layer risk indicators,including meteorological risk,wind power consumption,electricity price policy and design risk,to establish the wind power system Risk evaluation index system of power construction project.(2)Through the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various risk evaluation methods,in the weight construction process,the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to combine the objective weight of risk indicators determined by rough set theory with the subjective weight of indicators determined by AHP.Through the combination of weight,the subjective disadvantages of AHP weight are improved,based on the improved multi-level model Based on the comprehensive evaluation method,the comprehensive risk assessment of multiple wind power projects is carried out.(3)Based on the combination weight risk score of multiple projects,the decision tree algorithm is used to establish the risk evaluation decision tree training model of wind power project from six aspects,including 13 bottom indicators,4 middle indicators,4natural risk indicators,3 economic risk indicators,2 policy risk indicators and 4construction risk indicators.(4)Through the actual case,the effectiveness of the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the risk evaluation decision tree training model of wind power construction project is verified.Based on the sensitivity analysis of each risk index of the case,the risk evaluation decision tree judgment system of wind power construction project is designed,and finally the technical countermeasures for various risks of wind power construction project are put forward.