Risk Study In Development Stage Of A Coal-Fired Power Plant PPP Project In Pakistan

In order to fully save the infrastructure construction cost of one country and make full use of the private capital,PPP model has been widely adopted by many developed and developing countries for the development and construction of infrastructure.However,considering PPP model needs huge investment,many of the factors involved affect each other and it is highly extensible in time and space,the risk probability of PPP model is much greater than other general engineering projects.In particular,the inaccuracy of risk assessment in the development stage is an important cause for the risk occurring in the later stage of the project.Therefore,this paper focuses on the risk identification,analysis and countermeasures in project development stage of the whole life cycle of PPP project.This paper introduces the definition of PPP model and its operation mode in practice,summarizes the main work content of PPP project in the development stage,and briefly describes the related theories of risk identification and countermeasures of PPP project in the development stage.Based on the above theoretical research,empirical study is conducted on the Pakistan coal-fired power plant project.On the basis of investigations and interviews with experts,the project risk in development stage is classified into environmental risk,financial risk,technical risk and legal risk,and a risk questionnaire is established.Based on the survey results,risk factors in the development stage are identified and analyzed.Environmental risks include politics,macroeconomic,finance and power industry;financial risks include financing,electricity tariff and taxation;technical risks include equipment selection,energy supply and environmental protection;legal risks include laws and regulations as well as arbitration.By using the break-even method,we can see that the project is economically feasible;by using the sensitivity analysis method,we can determine the electricity output quantity and electricity tariff are the sensitive factors;by using expert evaluating method,we can see that the financing,energy supply and environmental protection are the high risk factors.Finally,in order to ensure the success of the project,necessary countermeasures are taken respectively for the four types of risks.This paper combines theory with practice to provide reference for other PPP projects,especially for the coal-fired power plant PPP projects in risk identification and risk countermeasures in the development stage.