| Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly,and energy consumption demand has also been increasing.As the most important secondary energy in China’s energy supply,power energy has made rapid progress in recent years.In the installed power structure,the proportion of thermal power installed is still more than 55%.It is urgent to change traditional energy consumption methods,and increase the proportion of renewable energy(RE)utilization to solve the shortage of fossil energy in China,promote rapid economic development and improve global climate warming,acid rain and other environmental pollution problems.In recent years,China’s centralized wind power and photovoltaic installations have been greatly upgraded,which lead to the serious problems of"curtailment" in the "Three North" region(North-east,North-west,and North China).In order to further increase the proportion of RE power generation in power supply,it is necessary to vigorously develop distributed RE power generation.Since 2017,distributed photovoltaic(DPV)installations experienced explosive growth,the cumulative installed capacity of DPV has reached 64.24GW,while dispersed wind power(DWP)is only in its infancy.How to promote the rapid development of DWP in China,make full use of the advantage of DWP in meeting power consumption demand,adjusting energy structure,increasing energy efficiency,promoting energy saving and emission reduction,enhancing grid coordination,and mitigating"curtailment" is an urgent problem needed to be solved for the development of distributed RE of China in recent years.By analyzing the initial investment and operation cost structure of DWP and DPV and introducing the concept of KWh cost,this paper summarized the main factors like initial investment,financal arrangement,operation hours that affect the KWh cost of DWP.Considering the characteristics of DWP,we select the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)and internal rate of return(IRR)indicators to conduct the economic evaluation.We select three typical cities in the east-central of China suitable for DWP,and analyze the economic of the project under current market regime and pending restructured power market under the ideal assumption of boundary conditions,and compare with that of DPV in the same region.Then we conduct the sensitivity analysis for the main factors.It is found that the DWP and DPV projects enjoy roughly the same economic returns under the ideal assumption of boundary conditions.Further more,we found the order of the impact of each factor on the economic of the project is transaction price,operation hours,initial investment,and financal arrangement.Finally,this paper did research on the investment path of DWP in the east-central of China where is most suitable for DWP development.Based on the economic order of projects in each province and through the change probability and range of factors affecting the economics of the project from different provinces,we propose the investment development path and investment suggestions of DWP.The research on economics analysis and investment development path of DWP in this paper is significant for optimizing energy structure,accelerating energy transformation and upgrading,and establishing "safe,efficient,low-carbon" energy system under the power market reform.The investment development path and investment suggestions of DWP proposed in this paper are important references for managers and decision makers of enterprise to plan the DWP and make correct investment decisions.The policy implications on grid-connection,land expropriation,and financial support,planning and approval procedure proposed in this paper are very useful for the government to formulate DWP development plans and improve DWP policies. |
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