The Economic Model Study Of Wind Farm Resources

With the renewable energy policies introduced gradually and continuous improvement of the power grids, China entered a stage of rapid development of wind power. However, the earlier stage work of the investment project includes many economic factors, such as wind turbine selection, estimation of power generation, formation of wind power electricity pricing, cost accounting, etc. In addition, wind power belongs to clean energy, it has zero emissions and leakage and also has technology barrier and investment barrier, therefore, a CDM project financing would be an important financing option in the development of wind power project. So in the life cycle of wind power project, it is particularly important to systematic study various economic factors and the pre-feasibility study. From an economic perspective, this paper analyses the important economic factors of feasibility in wind farms and realized the parameterization of the economic factors variables through the Dynamic Modeling, establishing a standardized mechanism for the project evaluation which makes the operation of project even more scientific.At first, the two-parameter curve Weibull distribution is simple to form and have a good fit to the actual situation. The results of fitting also have a high accuracy. As long as given parameters and Weibull distribution, the distribution of wind speed can be available and physical quantities such as average wind energy density can be easily solved. The accuracy of calculating the power generation affects the calculation of capacity factor and cost of electricity. Different wind turbines have different output characteristics, it is necessary for each different turbine to fit the output characteristic curve according to its own power characteristics and based on it to calculate the average power. Therefore, WASP software used in this paper to fit the average wind speed Weibull distribution and power characteristic curves.Secondly emission reductions and the amount of financing of Wind Farm CDM projects are based on the baseline emission factors. The accurate calculation of baseline emission factors needs the grid data which it belongs .This paper takes the Northwest power grid as a boundary of power system and through the analysis of the detailed dispatch date from the Northwest grid, it selects the simple operating margin method and thermal power emission factor method of build margin as the model to calculate the baseline emission factors. According to the case of a wind-farm project, it discusses the important role of baseline emission factor in calculating the emission reduction and revenue form CDM, it also provides the sensitivity analysis of emission reductions and gives some advices of development of wind- Farm CDM project.At last, it takes electricity price, CDM project financing, cost of investment as the variable parameters and set profit ratio of investment, internal rate of return as objective function of feasibility. Using sensitivity analysis to discuss objective function and analytical examples indicates that the economic model can not only as optimization function of wind turbine selection, also can be used as economic indicators of wind farms initial investment.