| In recent years,the concept of safe development,prevention and control of risks has been continuously emphasized and developed at the party and national strategic level.Adhere to the red line awareness of "development must not be at the expense of safety",implement the main safety responsibility of shipping companies,improve prevention and control capabilities,and respond to the risks of safe navigation of ships.From the perspective of the safety management of shipping companies,target certain accident-prone waters and dangerous waters It is extremely necessary to carry out the risk identification and risk assessment of the safe navigation of ships.The Huilai Shibeishan water area has large ship flow,complicated ship routes,the intersection of international and domestic routes,and the intersection of fishing ports and merchant shipping routes.It is also a habitual turning point for many north-south sailing ships,and the navigation environment is complicated.The Taiwan Strait tuyere in this sea area has obvious benefits.It is severely affected by monsoons and ocean currents throughout the year,and is listed as one of the ten most dangerous waters in Guangdong.There are frequent maritime traffic accidents in this sea area,but there are very few studies on the characteristics of this sea area,and there are very few references to the research on the safety of ship traffic safety in this sea area.In this paper,the research is carried out through the systematic method thinking of risk identification-risk evaluation-risk control measures and decision-making suggestions.First,on the basis of "people-ship-environment-management",through methods such as literature review,expert interviews,and marine traffic accident case analysis,questionnaire surveys and accident tree analysis methods are used to identify ship marine traffic risks in Shibeishan.,To determine important risk factors,and establish an evaluation system for ship marine traffic safety indicators based on Shibeishan.Secondly,with the help of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the ship’s maritime traffic safety evaluation model in the Shibeishan sea area is established,and the risk assessment of the ship’s voyage in the Shibeishan sea area is carried out.Finally,according to the evaluation results,reasonable safety recommendations are put forward in combination with the actual situation.The related research results are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the navigation environment in the Shibeishan sea area and the study on the characteristics of marine traffic accidents in this sea area,a preliminary description of the current status and accident characteristics of the Shibeishan sea area.In addition,risk identification and selection of main factors affecting ship traffic safety in this sea area are carried out to construct an evaluation index system for ship traffic safety in this sea area.(2)Establish a risk assessment model for ship traffic safety in Shibeishan waters based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,evaluate the traffic safety of ships in this waters,and get the safety level.(3)Based on the evaluation results,combined with the actual situation,suggestions on the safety of ship traffic in the sea area of Shibei Mountain are put forward.Through research,this paper analyzes the safety risk status of ships passing through the sea area of Shibei Mountain in Guangdong,as well as the main risk factors that affect ship traffic safety in the sea area of Shibei Mountain.This research may be used in cases where there is less research on marine traffic safety risk management in Shibeishan,Guangdong,and it will help shipping companies to strengthen the safe operation of ships in this sea area and prevent marine traffic accidents,as well as provide assistance to local maritime administrations to strengthen water traffic safety management reference. |