Forecast And Analysis Of China’s Energy Consumption And Carbon Dioxide Emission Under The Background Of High-quality Economic Development

In the new era,my country’s industrial economy has initially entered the stage of high-quality development,but there are still problems such as overcapacity,insufficient technological innovation,environmental carrying capacity and uncoordinated economic development.How to improve energy efficiency,optimize energy structure,and reduce energy intensity and CO₂ emission intensity without affecting the quality of economic development is a major strategic issue related to overall development.This study is based on the new requirements of China’s economic development under the new situation,and actively responds to the national high-quality development strategy,while taking into account the national mid-and long-term economic planning and energy emission policies,and analyzes China’s economic development,energy consumption,and CO₂ emissions between 2020 and 2050 Scenario prediction analysis.First,this study combines the input-output model with the multi-objective optimization theory,and establishes a dynamic input-output multi-objective optimization model,and analyzes the development situation and energy consumption of my country’s three major industries from 2020 to 2050 in different scenarios.Secondly,this study combines the input-output analysis method and the scenario analysis method to develop a mixed prediction model of energy types and CO₂emissions to predict and analyze my country’s primary energy consumption and energy structure between 2020 and 2050.Thirdly,the input-output table is merged into 8 non-energy sectors and 5 energy sectors,and the change trend of the value-added rate and industrial share of these 13 sectors during 1990-2017 is analyzed and compared with developed countries.Finally,the input-output model is used to decompose the carbon emission intensity of various industries in 2017,and the contribution of each energy variety to the industry’s carbon emission intensity is analyzed.The analysis results show that in the future,China will reach the peak of energy consumption and CO₂emissions between 2030 and 2035,and then tend to decline;in the future,the tertiary industry will occupy a dominant position,and the proportion of the secondary industry will gradually decline;it can reach the national medium and long-term development The targets and various emission reduction targets set in the Paris Agreement.At the same time,the structure of primary energy consumption will change significantly from 2020 to 2050.The proportion of non-fossil energy use will reach 37%in 2050;the proportion of coal will be reduced to less than 50%in 2030;the proportion of oil use will remain stable,about 2050 14%;the proportion of natural gas will continue to rise,about15%in 2050.The value-added rate of my country’s industry is relatively low,and it is showing a downward trend.The main carbon emission energy source in various industries is coal,and the proportion of natural gas and crude oil used is relatively small.The energy structure of the raw material industry is still dominated by coal and coke,which is the main reason for the high carbon emission intensity of the industry.