Research On The Spatial Diffusion Structure Characteristics And Critical Path Identification Of Provincial Carbon Intensity Fluctuation

Under the background of global warming,the issue of greenhouse gas emissions with carbon dioxide as the critical component has gradually become the bottleneck of my country’s economic transformation.Carbon intensity is an important indicator to measure the efficiency of carbon emissions in the development of low-carbon economy.As the economic and trade exchanges between provinces are getting closer,its fluctuations have complex spatial diffusion relationships between provinces,which in turn form a complex and stable spatial diffusion structure.Therefore,an in-depth study of the spatial diffusion structure characteristics and key paths of carbon intensity fluctuations between provinces is of great significance to my country’s economic low-carbon transition.This article takes 30 provinces in my country as the research object to study the spatial diffusion structureof my country’s inter-provincial carbon emission intensity fluctuations.First,calculate the carbon emission intensity of each province based on the energy consumption data of each province from 2007 to 2017 and the inter-provincial input-output table,and then analyze the characteristics of the spatial pattern of the carbon emission intensity of each province;secondly,build an inter-provincial carbon diffusion network to further analyze the characteristics of its network structure;finally,use the basic association tree structure to realize the research and analysis of the spatial diffusion path of the fluctuation of carbon emission intensity between provinces and key node provinces,and put forward relevant policy recommendations for the cooperation of carbon emission reduction between provinces.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2007 to 2017,the carbon emission intensity of my country’s provinces was higher in the north and west,lower in the south and east.At the same time,the range of high-value areas gradually shifted to the northwest and showed a gradual shrinking trend.(2)During the study period,the spatial diffusion relationship of carbon emission intensity fluctuations among provinces in my country is shown as a complex spatial carbon diffusion network structure.In the inter-provincial supply carbon diffusion network,Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Tianjin,Liaoning,Shanghai,Beijing,Shandong and other provinces have a strong ability to spread carbon emission intensity fluctuations to other provinces,while Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui and other provinces have carbon emission intensity.The impact of volatility on the carbon emission intensity of other provinces has been increasing year by year.In the inter-provincial demand carbon diffusion network,Jiangsu,Jilin,Qinghai,Gansu,Heilongjiang and other provinces have strong ability to diffuse carbon emission intensity fluctuations,Chongqing and Shandong Provinces such as Gansu and Gansu have strong transmission and diffusion capacity of carbon emission intensity fluctuations.Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hainan,Chongqing and other provinces have increased their ability to pull carbon emission intensity of other provinces year by year.(3)In the key path of inter-provincial carbon emission intensity fluctuation spatial diffusion,Jilin,Jiangsu,Ningxia,Guangdong,Hainan,Chongqing,Xinjiang,Henan,Hebei,Hunan and other provinces are located in the backbone area of the path and have strong diffusion capacity.And Jiangsu’s proliferation position in the critical path is increasing year by year.Therefore,in order to effectively complete my country’s carbon emission reduction targets,provinces with strong carbon emission intensity fluctuations and diffusion capabilities should become the focus of attention in the process of formulating carbon emission reduction policies.