| In recent years,under the dual pressure of global warming and energy scarcity,countries generally reduce carbon emissions through the development of low-carbon economy.China attaches increasing importance to sustainable development.In the Outline of the 14 th Five-Year Plan in 2021,it is mentioned that the goal of low-carbon development is to "reduce carbon emission intensity,support local areas with conditions to take the lead in reaching the peak of carbon emission,and formulate an action plan to reach the peak of carbon emission by 2030".At the same time,the development of the logistics industry is very rapid,in China’s various industries of energy consumption,the logistics industry accounted for a relatively high.Therefore,the control of China’s logistics industry carbon dioxide emissions,the development of green logistics to achieve China’s 2030 emission reduction target is of great significance.This paper makes an in-depth study of China’s logistics industry’s carbon emissions,and attempts to analyze the influencing factors and related industries of logistics industry’s direct and indirect carbon emissions from the perspectives of the logistics industry itself and industrial linkages.In the stage of empirical analysis,firstly,the relationship between the development status of the logistics industry and its carbon emissions is analyzed,and the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in 20 years.The relationship between the output value of the logistics industry and its carbon emissions was fitted by using the environmental Kuznets curve,and the current level of carbon emissions of the logistics industry in China was determined according to the shape of the fitting results,and then the development trend of the logistics industry was predicted.Secondly,from the perspective of the logistics industry itself,the SDA structural decomposition method is used to decompose the carbon emission intensity of the logistics industry into four influencing factors.According to the positive and negative values of each effect,the effect on the carbon emission of the logistics industry is analyzed,and then the causes of the change of the carbon emission of the logistics industry are analyzed from the perspectives of policies or production activities.Finally,on the basis of the above calculation,the input-output method and grey correlation analysis theory are adopted to calculate the contribution of each associated industry to the indirect carbon emissions of the logistics industry,and the industry with the highest contribution is selected for specific analysis from the perspective of intermediate investment rate,demand rate and related influencing factors of carbon emissions.The results of this study show that the relationship between China’s logistics industry carbon emissions and logistics industry output value is approximately "N" shaped,and in the short term,it is still in the rising stage of "N" shaped curve.From 2012 to 2017,the industry with the largest decline in carbon intensity was the supply industry,followed by the logistics industry.From the perspective of the logistics industry itself,the reduction of its carbon emission intensity is the result of the combined action of four effects,among which the direct carbon emission coefficient effect plays the main promoting role,followed by the added value coefficient effect.From the perspective of industrial association,the heavy manufacturing industry contributes the most to the indirect carbon emissions of the logistics industry.Through further analysis,in terms of input,the logistics industry is relatively dependent on the intermediate input of the manufacturing industry,but the manufacturing industry is weakly dependent on the logistics industry.In terms of demand,the intermediate demand of the manufacturing industry to the logistics industry has a great impact on the development of the logistics industry,but the intermediate demand of the logistics industry to the manufacturing industry has a small impact on the manufacturing industry.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between the carbon emissions of the logistics industry and the added value of the manufacturing industry and the total labor productivity of the manufacturing industry is more than 0.7,indicating that the two have a strong linkage with the carbon emissions of the logistics industry.Combined with the influencing factors of the logistics industry’s own carbon emissions and the results of industrial association analysis,the paper puts forward suggestions on the reduction of the logistics industry’s carbon emissions,green logistics and sustainable development. |
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