Spatiotemporal Evolution And Simulation Prediction Of "Production-living-ecological" Space In Jiawang District

With the rapid development of urbanization,urban space continues to expand,while agricultural space and ecological space are being squeezed to varying degrees,resulting in unbalanced urban spatial structure,as well as increasing pressure on regional resources and the environment.Therefore,in order to build a land space pattern that is livable,intensive in production,and ecologically beautiful,and further to protect high-quality farmland,optimize urban morphology,it is particularly important to explore the low of “Production-Living-Ecological”,highlight the dominant functions of the region,and reasonably arrange the land use.Jiawang,as a typical coal resource-exhausted city,experienced the development of "production first,then life".The living space is scattered around the mining sites,entering a critical period of transformation and development.At present,there are problems of insufficient construction land space and severely limited transformation development in Jiawang District.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the evolution and driving factors of Jiawang’s “Production-Living-Ecological” spatial layout in Jiawang District for its urban development planning and ecological environment protection.This article first constructs the “Production-Living-Ecological” spatial classification system as the basis for reclassification of land use data to identify the Jiawang “Production-Living-Ecological” space by referencing previous studies and the actual situation of the study area.Secondly,based on GIS technology,the change process and pattern characteristics of the “Production-Living-Ecological” space are studied from different perspectives,and a binary logistic regression driving model is constructed to quantitatively describe the role of driving factors in the“Production-Living-Ecological” space.Finally,this paper predicts the spatial layout of the “Production-Living-Ecological” under different development scenarios combining the methods of FLUS and Markov.Draw the following main conclusions:(1)The “Production-Living-Ecological” space in Jiawang District shows obvious geographical differentiation.The urban living space is mainly distributed in Laokuang street and Daquan street in Jiawang City,and the industrial and mining production space is mainly distributed in the Industrial Park,Qingshanquan Town,Dawu Town and Jiangzhuang Town,the green quilt ecological space is mainly distributed in Daquan Street and Zhuyushan Street,and the agricultural production and rural living spaces are mainly distributed in Biantang Town,Tashan Town,and Zizhuang Town.Other ecological space and water ecological space show zonal distribution.The area of agricultural production space in Jiawang District is the largest,accounting for 65%,followed by rural living space.From the perspective of dynamic changes,the area of other ecological spaces has decreased the most,while urban living space has increased the most.The changes in the early period of the study period are stronger than those in the later period.In terms of space transfer matrix,urban living space is mainly transferred in,agricultural production space is mainly transferred out,and urban expansion is obvious;in terms of center of gravity migration,the center of gravity of urban living space moves eastward,which is consistent with the planning direction,and the industrial and mining production space is toward the industrial park.Migrating to the northeast,showing a trend of clustering.(2)Driving factors were selected from 4 aspects: natural factors,socio-economic factors,locational factor,and industrial and mining development and utilization,and further quantitatively analyzes the role of each driving force by using the binary Logistic regression model.and the ROC value of each spatial type fitting model was average.It turned out that the ROC values of each spatial type fitting model were all greater than 0.7,which proved evaluation indexes selected had a good explanatory power for the spatial distribution pattern of "Production-Living-Ecological" in the study area." Different driving factors have different effects on different spaces.Industrial and mining development and utilization factors have the highest explanatory effect on the distribution of each space,playing a leading role in the distribution of industrial and mining production spaces.Accessibility factors has the strong explanation,and natural factors have an obvious impact on agricultural production space.While the socio-economic factors have the strongest effect on living space.(3)The FLUS-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the spatial pattern of the "Production-Living-Ecological" in Jiawang District.The results show that the the overall structure of the "Production-Living-Ecological" in 2028 space will change little in 2028,and the agricultural production space will still occupy a dominant position,which is generally manifested as the outward expansion of urban living space and industrial and mining production.Under the conditions that the construction and development of the main urban area of Jiawang District has been relatively mature,the future spatial expansion will mainly focus the regional administrative centers and spread aong the main roads.Through the analysis of the simulation results of different scenarios,the agricultural production space is easy to be invaded.In the future planning of Jiawang District,it is necessary to focus on protecting of high-qual ity farmland and ecologically important areas.The development under the ecological security scenario is more consistent with the future development trend of Jiawang District.