Multi-Scenario Simulation Of Production-Living-Ecological Space And Ecological Effects Based On Shared Socioeconomic Pathways In Zhengzhou,China

With the rapid advancement of new urbanization and rapid growth of the economic,most cities in China are facing the dual pressure of population growth and land expansion,which also brings about the continuous deterioration of ecological environment.How to rationally plan the development layout of production,living and ecological spaces(PLES)is of great significance to the sustainable economic development and ecological environment improvement in the future.From the perspective of cities,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of PLES pattern,analyze its eco-environmental effects,and explore the optimal path of urban sustainable development by combining different socioeconomic development scenarios in the future.As a national central city,And the ecological protection and sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin in 2019 has been listed as one of China’s major strategies,so the high-quality development of Zhengzhou has attracted much attention.In this study,we presented a scenario-based PLES ecological effects assessment framework,integrating a Future Land Use Simulation Model(FLUS),Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and an Eco-environmental Effect Method,to analyze the patterns of spatiotemporal changes at the urban-level PLES and assess its potential ecological effects in Zhengzhou,China.The main research contents include : Firstly,the pattern of PLES in Zhengzhou from 2010 to 2018 was analyzed by constructing the classification system of PLES.Meanwhile,the ecological effect assessment methods were used to analyze the current status of ecological environment quality in Zhengzhou.Then,based on the construction of multiple linear regression equation,the PLES pattern of Zhengzhou under multiple SSPs scenarios was simulated.Finally,taking 2035 as the research year,and based on the simulation results of PLES from 2020 to 2100 under multiple scenarios,the future development of Zhengzhou’s ecological environment quality under multiple scenarios was deeply analyzed.Through the research,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2018,the production space of Zhengzhou decreased year by year.However,living space keeps rising.Urban living land is concentrated in the downtown area of Zhengzhou and tends to expand outward year by year,while rural living land is scattered around urban living land.Overall,living space covers an increasing area.The proportion of ecological space area was the smallest,and showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.(2)The eco-environmental quality index of Zhengzhou decreased year by year from 2010 to 2018,but the decrease is small,the overall eco-environmental level is medium,and the pattern distribution of ecoenvironmental quality of Zhengzhou has no obvious change in recent years.The spatial distribution of the eco-environmental quality index represents the phenomenon of "high in southwest and low in middle".The improvement of ecological environment quality in Zhengzhou was mainly due to the conversion of agricultural productive land into water,meadow and forest ecological land.However,the main reason for the deterioration of the eco-environmental quality under five different SSPs scenarios was that agricultural productive land and water ecological land are occupied by urban living land.(3)The simulation results of PLES under SSPs1,SSPs2,SSPs3 and SSPs5 scenarios show that urban living land is mainly distributed in the central and northern regions,and is expanding outwards under the dual influence of population and GDP,while the area of production space and living space is declining.Under SSPs4 scenario,the area of urban living land will increase first and then decrease,while the ecological space will change from a shrinking trend to an expanding trend after 2050.(4)Under the five scenarios(SSPs1,SSPs2,SSPs3,SSPs4 and SSPs5)in 2035,the eco-environmental quality index under SSPs4 scenario is the highest,and the ecological contribution rate of land use transformation under SSPs4 scenario is slightly higher than that of the other four scenarios.Under the five SSPs,the deterioration of ecological environment quality in Zhengzhou was mainly caused by the transformation ofagricultural production and water ecological land into urban living land,and the conversion of meadow,forest and water ecological land into agricultural productive land.To study the pattern change of PLES and its effect on ecological environment caused by simulating multiple scenarios in the future will be helpful to optimize the existing spatial pattern of land use,promote the sustainable development of cities,and provide effective reference for the construction of urban ecological civilization.